Four Billion People Threatened By Water Shortages

Four Billion People Threatened By Water Shortages If World Leaders Stumble At 2010's First Climate Change Hurdle

World leaders are set to fail their first test on climate change since Copenhagen and put the world on track for almost four degrees of warming, said Oxfam International today, ahead of the January 31 deadline for countries to submit emission reduction targets under the Copenhagen Accord. Despite agreeing at the UN climate talks in Copenhagen that temperatures should be kept from rising above the two-degree danger level, world leaders are so far failing to provide adequate emissions reduction targets. The European Union, Japan and Australia have already put their plans on the table, none of which improve on the same offers they made before Copenhagen.

Rich countries’ pledges on emissions cuts are expected to total just 12-18 per cent below 1990 levels – less than half of the 40 per cent cuts needed from rich countries to keep temperatures in check.

The pledges expected will, according to climate models, lead to a nearly four degree centigrade rise in global temperature by 2100. Scientists predict this will create a world crippled by drought with four billion people affected by water shortages across the globe, year round droughts in Southern Africa and serious droughts in Europe every ten years instead of every one hundred years.

Barry Coates, Oxfam New Zealand Executive Director said: “World leaders were able to achieve little in Copenhagen. Now they are set to stumble over the first hurdle. They agreed that global temperature rise should not exceed two degrees centigrade, but have failed to undertake the commitments that would prevent that from happening. It has taken only a month into the new year for the undertakings made in Copenhagen to be exposed as inadequate.”

“According to news reports, the government will not even support the Copenhagen Accord in submitting a revised target for greenhouse gas emissions reductions by the due date of 31st January. This shows again that New Zealand is becoming one of the world’s climate laggards. Our international reputation as a country committed to a sound environment and responsible international behaviour is under threat.”

Oxfam says the Accord proves that the bottom up approach, where countries set their own emission reduction targets, will not deliver the cuts that are needed. The international agency is calling for a global target for emissions reductions based on the science and for national contributions to the global target to be calculated according to a country’s historical responsibility for creating the climate crisis and their economic capability for tackling it. This would, for example, mean the New Zealand should cut its emissions by at least 40 per cent below 1990 levels by 2020, as opposed to its current target of just 10-20 per cent.

To deliver their fair share of global efforts, rich countries should also provide US$200 billion per year by 2020 to help developing countries adapt and reduce their own emissions. The Accord aims to raise just US$100 billion a year and progress hangs on the establishment of a High Level Panel to recommend how the money will be raised and delivered. It is crucial that this funding is additional to aid budgets, so that funds for poverty reduction are not diverted to deal with the impacts of climate change.

The Accord also promises US$30 billion in fast track finance – emergency funds to help the poorest and most vulnerable countries cope with climate impacts over the next three years. For example Bangladesh, one of the world’s most vulnerable countries to climate change, needs an estimated US$1.5 million to provide drinking water to coastal communities whose traditional water sources have been contaminated with salt water due to sea level rise.

Coates said: “New Zealand must make provisions in its next budget for the climate cash promised in the Accord. Oxfam has calculated New Zealand’s share at NZ$47 million per year for the next three years. Poor and vulnerable countries, including our Pacific neighbours, desperately need support to prepare for the likelihood of climate change impacts such as increased cyclone intensity and water shortages.”

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