FPI Overnight Brief

FPI Overnight Brief
March 5, 2010

Special Announcement

On the evening of Thursday, March 11, the Foreign Policy Initiative and the Institute for the Study of War will host a panel discussion on the Iraq elections for young professionals in the Washington DC area. RSVP on FPI’s website.

Iraq

An Iraqi election to choose the country's next leader and help shape the U.S. role here for the next four years opened Thursday to deadly violence and fraud claims. Early balloting began for hundreds of thousands of Iraqis, including police and military who will be on duty Sunday, the main voting day in Iraq's second general election since the ouster of Saddam Hussein. The result will help determine the dynamics of Iraq's democracy, its closeness to Iran and the U.S.'s ability to follow through on its plans to withdraw the bulk of its forces…The United Nations' envoy to Baghdad on Monday called the vote "the most decisive moment for Iraq's future" since U.S.-led forces toppled Mr. Hussein. At least 12 people were killed in three separate attacks Thursday, a police official in Baghdad told Iraqi television. In two of the blasts, suicide bombers tried to enter polling stations, and then detonated their explosive vests in the street among voters, the official said. A rocket struck near a closed polling station in northern Baghdad, killing five people, he said. There were also early signs of irregularities which, if widespread on Sunday, could sap the vote's legitimacy. – Wall Street Journal

On the last official day of campaigning before Sunday’s parliamentary election in Iraq, the supporters of Shiite religious parties came out in force, flocking to Friday prayer gatherings that became part religious service, part campaign rally. In Baghdad, tens of thousands of supporters of the United Iraqi Alliance, a coalition of Shiite parties, attended a service held by Ammar Hakim, the leader of the coalition. Mr. Hakim told the throngs that it was their religious duty to vote. “We don’t need a strong man,” Mr. Hakim said, clearly referring to Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki, “We need thousands of strong men to form a just, honest and modest government.” In recent weeks, former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi, a secular Shiite aligned with the most powerful Sunni blocs, has gained strength, according to surveys and interviews with voters. But the turnout at Friday prayers was a reminder that the real power of the Shiite parties remains in the streets. As the rally ended, women in black chadors took to the streets carrying Iraqi flags; busloads of young men hung out of car windows cheering and waving and Iraqi police officers blared nationalist music from their vehicles. - New York Times

Anywhere else in Iraq, a shootout between political rivals that injured three people would have been unremarkable. But last month's brief gun battle in Iraq's autonomous Kurdish region sent chills through the three provinces in the north that are held up by U.S. officials as a beacon of stability in a country where politics and violence often intertwine. The scuffle between forces loyal to the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, which controls this city, and energetic supporters of a breakaway faction called Change was the most serious in what the latter calls a campaign of intimidation by the ruling power. The violence underscored the fierce political rivalry developing in a region that until now has managed to speak with one voice in Baghdad. The Kurds in recent years have served as kingmakers in an otherwise fragmented political system, but the new discord raises questions about whether they will be able to continue in that role after parliamentary elections on Sunday. Kurds hold 58 of the 275 seats in the Iraqi parliament, making them a critical constituency for other parties seeking control of the government. – Washington Post

Sentiments seethed like the weather Thursday near the Kufa Mosque, terra sancta for the followers of Moktada al-Sadr. Under a sky cast in shades of ocher by a sandstorm, the militant cleric’s men struggled to sort truth from rumor in the campaign for Sunday’s election that has put them on the defensive. Speculation has swirled through Kufa and other Sadr strongholds that he will return from exile in neighboring Iran to rally support before the vote — and that the Iraqi government has reissued an arrest warrant against him. The government’s spokesman has denied it. No one, it seems, knows for sure. “They’re waging a war of nerves against us,” said Nasser Muhsin, a vendor at a rickety arcade of shops beneath the mosque’s turquoise and tan minarets. Since the United States invaded in 2003, Mr. Sadr, the mercurial and enigmatic scion of one of Iraq’s most revered ayatollahs, has proved a wild card. This holds true for this election. But rarely have his loyalists seemed as suspicious as today, distrustful of their allies, angry at the government, in particular Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki, and fearful that their once formidable support has ebbed since their military defeat in 2008. – New York Times

Iraq's foreign minister accused neighboring countries of attempting to influence the outcome of a national election on Sunday seen as a crucial test as Iraq emerges from years of war and sectarian violence. Iran, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Turkey, Jordan and Kuwait have all intervened to varying degrees ahead of Iraq's second national election for a full four-year term since the 2003 U.S.-led invasion, Foreign Minister Hoshiyar Zebari told Reuters. "This is not just an Iraqi election, this is a regional election that Iraq's neighbors are watching very closely," he said in an interview late on Wednesday. "Some of them are active participants in supporting certain groups, favoring certain outcomes," he said. "All six neighbors are involved." Zebari did not cite specific actions, but said the interference included financial support for parties. - Reuters

Ayad Allawi writes: This election represents a critical moment — for Iraq but also for America, Britain and the coalition that liberated the country from Saddam. The Iraqi people want and deserve a future where real, tangible progress is being made to better their lives, and where they and their children and grandchildren can look forward to a brighter tomorrow. And it is imperative that the Western nations understand that this is a moment when all their efforts and sacrifices can result in a new kind of democratic dynamic in the Middle East; the alternative is that Iraq lapses back into a sectarian political quagmire that will place renewed pressure on the US to maintain a military involvement that nobody wants. The US, Britain and their allies can help to salvage Iraq’s nascent democracy by sending a strong message that only free, fair and inclusive elections are acceptable. There must be extra scrutiny of the election to ensure that the will of the people is served. Democracy only works if the public has faith in the system and those that occupy high office. On Sunday Iraqis have an opportunity to reaffirm the power of democracy. It must not be missed. – Times of London

The Economist’s pre-election brief

The Carnegie Endowment’s pre-election brief

Foreign Policy magazine’s pre-election brief

Foreign Affairs’ Q&A with Reidar Vissar

Iran

The Obama administration is pushing to carve out an exemption for China and other permanent members of the U.N. Security Council from legislation pending in the Senate and the House that would tighten sanctions on companies doing business in Iran, administration and congressional sources said. China has balked at supporting a fourth round of U.N. sanctions on Iran. That has emboldened countries on the council, such as Brazil, Turkey and Lebanon, to also express opposition. The administration's plan in effect would label China as a country cooperating in the U.S.-led drive to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons and appears to be part of a broader strategy to prod Beijing to vote for a new sanctions resolution. The three previous resolutions enjoyed broad support in the 15-member council, so any result that includes several abstentions or no votes would be viewed as a major diplomatic setback. But the administration's lobbying for a Chinese exemption has raised eyebrows in Congress and angered several allies, most notably South Korea and Japan, which would not be exempted under the administration's plan. – Washington Post

Russia and China have urged Iran to accept a UN nuclear fuel proposal aimed at easing concerns about its atomic program, while U.S., British, and French envoys have said it is time for new sanctions. The statements by the five permanent, veto-wielding UN Security Council members highlighted the different views dividing the United States, Britain and France from Russia and China as they struggle to agree on what should be done to persuade Iran to halt its nuclear-enrichment program. Russia and China, which have reluctantly supported three rounds of UN sanctions against the Islamic Republic, renewed their calls for diplomacy and dialogue. - Reuters

Afghanistan/Pakistan

Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence agency has detained another top Afghan Taliban leader. Agha Jan Mohtasim, the former Finance Minister during the Taliban regime and the son-in-law of Mullah Mohammed Omar, the leader of the Taliban, is said to have been arrested along with three associates, according to The Daily Mail and The Associated Press. US intelligence officials contacted by The Long War Journal would not comment on reports of Mohtasim's arrest. Pakistani intelligence officials are said to be interrogating Mohtasim, who was detained in a raid in Karachi. The date of his capture was not disclosed. Mohtasim is thought to be one of several candidates to take over the Quetta Shura after Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar was detained by Pakistani security forces sometime in January of Febuary of this year. Mohtasim is said to be a close confidant to Mullah Omar. [See LWJ report, "The Afghan Taliban's top leaders," for more details] If Mohtasim is in Pakistani custody, he would be the sixth member of the Afghan Taliban's top council to be detained this year. – Long War Journal

The arrest of the Afghan Taliban's former number two figure may have been the result of an internal feud and purge among Taliban leaders, the commander of U.S. and NATO forces said on Thursday. The arrest in Pakistan of Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, in a U.S.-Pakistani operation confirmed last month, was described as a major intelligence coup and a possible sign Islamabad is becoming more willing to help fight Afghan militants. A theory in some intelligence circles, however, is that Baradar was captured only after he had already effectively been expelled from the Taliban after an internal tribal feud, leaving behind a more radical rump Taliban leadership. - Reuters

General Stanley McChrystal, Commander of the NATO International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), today issued a new Tactical Directive providing guidance and intent for the conduct of night raids by all Coalition Forces operating in Afghanistan. A "night raid" is any offensive operation involving entry into a compound, residence, building or structure that occurs in the period between nautical twilight and nautical dawn. To implement this change, the ISAF Driving Directive, the ISAF Directive on Medical Facilities and the Tactical Directive have been modified. Although these Directives have been classified for the protection of our own forces, portions of the directive are being made public in order to ensure a broader awareness of the intent and scope of General McChrystal's guidance to Coalition Forces. - ISAF

U.S. forces who pushed the Taliban out of their main stronghold in Marjah, southern Afghanistan, have found residents there deeply skeptical of the Afghan government's promises to rebuild, a top U.S. commander said on Thursday. The concerns raised by Brigadier General Lawrence Nicholson, the Marine commander in southern Afghanistan, put a spotlight on the big challenge still facing U.S., NATO and Afghan forces in Marjah now that fighting has died down. Gaining local support is key to President Barack Obama's counterinsurgency strategy, which aims to clear the Taliban out of population centers like Marjah so President Hamid Karzai's government in Kabul can begin taking over. In a televised video link from Afghanistan, Nicholson told reporters at the Pentagon that he wants to quickly hire more than 1,000 local residents, many of whom, he acknowledged, were "probably Taliban at one time." Many of these new hires "just quit being Taliban" for jobs on development projects clearing rubble and canals, he said. - Reuters

Russia

Russian communists paid homage on Friday to Soviet leader Josef Stalin, while liberals accused the Kremlin of conniving to whitewash the dictator. Communist Party chiefs led a procession of largely elderly people across Red Square on the 57th anniversary of Stalin's death, laying flowers at his grave by the Kremlin wall. The solemn visit is an annual tradition for communists steeped in nostalgia for the Soviet era. But this year, it comes as Russia's bitter debate over Stalin's legacy sharpens ahead of May 9 celebrations marking 65 years since the Nazi defeat. For the first time in decades, Stalin's image may appear among the banners and posters that Moscow authorities put up for Victory Day, which will draw foreign leaders to Moscow as guests of the government. – Reuters

The Kremlin on Thursday said Ukraine should stick to existing gas deals with Russia, drawing a line on a divisive issue expected to be in focus during Viktor Yanukovich's first visit to Moscow as Ukraine's president. While it marks a fresh start in political ties that soured under Yanukovich's pro-Western predecessor, the visit may be dominated by economic issues such as cash-strapped Ukraine's bills for Russian natural gas. Yanukovich, inaugurated last week, comes to Russia days after his first foreign trip as head of state, to Brussels, where he pledged to keep Ukraine on the reform path and ensure it remains a reliable gas transit route. Europe, which gets a fifth of its gas needs from Russia via Ukraine, is hoping Yanukovich's more pro-Russian stance can guarantee he will avoid repeating the price disputes which led to supply cuts to Europe in recent years. But many analysts believe Kiev's desperate public finances mean Yanukovich must change a long-term gas deal signed in 2009 by his election rival, former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, which made Russian gas more expensive for Ukraine than for most European countries. – Reuters

Daniel Goure writes: The Obama Administration and the Medvedev-Putin government of Russia approach the issue of strategic arms control from diametrically opposed positions. For the U.S. administration the threats of concern are those posed by the nuclear weapons themselves in the event of crises, their potential for being proliferated or falling into the hands of terrorists, and the problem that the maintenance of a secure deterrent can create for the attainment of a positive relationship between Moscow and Washington. This reflects the views held by many U.S. strategists that the challenge to an improved political relationship is the maintenance of a security strategy based on deterrence. The U.S. approach to nuclear arms control is based on a fallacy: that both sides would be better off if the role of nuclear weapons in their respective security strategies were minimized. Many U.S. observers mistakenly believe that Russia’s political and security interests are largely parallel to those of the United States. They assume that the threats the West sees from so-called rogue states and terrorist groups acquiring weapons of mass destruction are those that also concern Russia. This is not the case. Today, Russia is in greater need of maintaining the mutual hostage relationship created by strategic deterrence than perhaps at any time since the end of World War Two. – Early Warning

Vladimir Kara-Murza writes: The “good cop, bad cop” trick must be one of the oldest in the book. Yet, unfailingly, this unsophisticated tactic continues to yield results, as illustrated by Russia’s ruling tandem of Vladimir Putin and Dmitry Medvedev…The “democratic reformer” has been in the Kremlin for two years. Yet political prisoners remain behind bars, television remains under government control and opposition rallies are still dispersed by police. In fact, Mr. Medvedev effected only two noticeable political changes, raising the presidential term from four years to six, and establishing the Interior Ministry’s “Center Eh” tasked with monitoring political dissent—the equivalent of the infamous Fifth Main Directorate of the Soviet KGB. Dmitry Medvedev has a different style from Vladimir Putin. He speaks in a soft and intelligent manner. Unlike his mentor, he never talks of “wiping terrorists in the s---house” or “cutting it off so that it never grows again.” But it is Mr. Medvedev’s record, not his words, which should serve as the only true measure of his presidency. – World Affairs Journal

Boris Nemetsov says: I believe that the [International Olympic Committee] is under very strong pressure from Putin and there is an informal relationship between him and the committee. Eventually, there will be an international investigation to bring to light why this decision [to let Sochi host the games] was made. Whether it happens before or after the Olympics will depend on the level of interest of the international community. But the truth will come out and the IOC will have to answer for it. – Foreign Policy

China

Prime Minister Wen Jiabao of China said Friday that the nation would expand social spending, bolster lending, curb inflation and meet its traditional 8 percent economic growth target in 2010, but he cautioned that China still confronted “a very complex situation” in the wake of the global financial crisis. Delivering his annual report to China’s unelected legislature, the National People’s Congress, Mr. Wen said that “destabilizing factors and uncertainties” in the world economy posed a challenge to China’s continued growth. But he effectively said that China’s plan to slowly ease away from last year’s enormous economic stimulus program, which spared China the worst of the recession, would continue unchanged. “There’s no surprise here,” Tao Wang, an economist for USB Securities in Beijing, said in an interview after Mr. Wen’s address. “This has been the working assumption for a long time.” Mr. Wen’s 35-page speech, the rough equivalent of an American State of the Union address, included a listing of statistics aimed at underscoring the government’s successful policies, swathed in boilerplate assertions of arduous struggle and glorious achievement. – New York Times

The Dalai Lama is the latest and most senior world religious leader to appear on Twitter, the social networking site.The 75-year-old Tibetan spiritual leader, regarded by the Chinese Government as a dangerous separatist, has so far steered clear of controversy in his tweets. One recent example referred to his appearance on the Larry King show in Los Angeles, when he tweeted: “Dalai Lama Says Loves China Despite ‘Suppression’.” Other tweets link to webcasts on his official website where he talks about the life story of the Buddha. Beijing will be noting whether he begins using Twitter in his campaign to win autonomy for his Himalayan homeland. He has been in exile from Tibet since 1959 when he fled after a rebellion against Chinese rule. – Times of London

The War

The recent captures and killings of feared Abu Sayyaf Group leaders in the southernmost Philippine islands, such as Sulu and Basilan, are part of the military's success at using community engagement by local military units. Local intelligence tip-offs by community residents and the rejection of the ASG's terror tactics by the vast majority of Muslim Filipinos have been the key to success. In recent years, the U.S. military employed a civil-affairs-style approach to counterterrorism, especially the successful counterinsurgency strategy used by Army Gen. David H. Petraeus, commander in Iraq and later U.S. Central Command leader, and being adapted in the current surge in Afghanistan. Even before U.S. forces used local engagement programs, allied militaries such as those in the Philippines were using similar techniques such as engaging with local communities. Despite battlefield and law enforcement victories of the U.S. military-backed counterterrorism campaign in Mindanao, which has led to the elimination of a number of Abu Sayyaf "commanders," military operations have failed to eradicate the organization. The loose-knit Abu Sayyaf and other groups designated as "lawless elements" by Philippine officials have shown themselves capable of inflicting damage on both military and civilian targets even after high-profile group leaders were neutralized. – Washington Times

Turkey

A congressional committee voted Thursday to label as "genocide" the Ottoman-era slaughter of Armenians, shrugging off a last-minute warning from Obama administration officials that it would alienate Turkey, a key U.S. ally. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton called Rep. Howard L. Berman (D-Calif.), chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, on the eve of the hearing to express concern, administration officials said. In addition to straining U.S. relations with Turkey, the resolution could also endanger a recent rapprochement between Turkey and Armenia, State Department officials said. But the committee voted 23 to 22 to adopt the nonbinding measure. It calls on President Obama to use the annual presidential statement on the tragedy next month to "characterize the systemic and deliberate annihilation of 1,500,000 Armenians as genocide." The Turkish government was so infuriated by the vote that it recalled its ambassador for consultations. It warned in a statement that the move "could adversely affect our cooperation on a wide common agenda." – Washington Post

Obama Administration

FPI Director Robert Kagan writes: Unnoticed amid the sniping in Washington over health care and the wailing about "broken government," a broad and durable bipartisan consensus has begun falling into place in one unlikely area: foreign policy. Consider the fact that on Afghanistan, Iraq, and Iran -- the most difficult, expensive, and potentially dangerous foreign challenges facing the United States -- precious little now separates Barack Obama from most Republican leaders in and out of Congress. – Foreign Policy

An abridged version of Kagan’s article is also featured in today’s Washington Post

Victor Davis Hanson writes: Britain is a longstanding NATO member. It has bled side-by-side with America in two world wars, Korea, and two conflicts in Iraq, and continues to do so in Afghanistan. The United Kingdom still shares close linguistic, cultural, and historical affinities with the United States. We do not support all that the British do; nor do they always support us. But our centuries-old friendship should earn Britain special support from us in its disputes, even in the relatively unimportant Falklands mess. If Britain is not considered an ally, then America no longer has real allies. And perhaps that is the point after all. The Obama administration does not wish to see the world so divided between allies and the rest. – National Review Online

Ideas

Baker Spring writes: The concept of an EMP strike may be seen by the public as abstract, but the devastating consequences would be very real for the victims. Congress should not let the Obama Administration ignore this menace. Defensive options for addressing future EMP attacks are not beyond America's capacity. Pursuing these options starts with updating intelligence on EMP capabilities and emerging threats; it ends with putting specific defensive systems in place, such as a modified version of the Navy's sea-based ballistic missile defense interceptors capable of intercepting and destroying short-range ballistic missile EMP delivery systems. – Heritage Foundation

Clifford May writes: If a top intelligence expert said America was not prepared for war and, indeed, that if we went to war “we would lose,” that would worry you, wouldn’t it? Start worrying.The expert is Mike McConnell, who served as director of the National Security Agency under President Clinton and as director of national intelligence under President Bush. He was referring not to a conventional war, a guerrilla war, or an insurgency. He was referring to a cyberwar. But understand: Cyberwar does not mean fun and video games. McConnell told a Senate committee last week that the risk we face from cyberattacks “rivals nuclear weapons in terms of seriousness.” – National Review Online

Defense

Gen Merrill McPeak (USAF ret.) writes: Armies have to care about what succeeds in war. Sometimes they win or lose because of material factors, because one side has the greater numbers or better equipment. But armies are sure to lose if they pay no attention to the ideas that succeed in battle. Unit cohesion is one such idea. We know, or ought to, that warriors are inspired by male bonding, by comradeship, by the knowledge that they survive only through relying on each other. To undermine cohesion is to endanger everyone. I know some will see these ingredients of the military lifestyle as a sort of absurd, tough-guy game played by overgrown boys. But to prepare warriors for a life of hardship, the military must remain a kind of adventure, apart from the civilian world and full of strange customs. To be a fighter pilot or a paratrooper or a submariner is to join a self-contained, resolutely idealistic society, largely unnoticed and surprisingly uncorrupted by the world at large. I do not see how permitting open homosexuality in these communities enhances their prospects of success in battle. Indeed, I believe repealing “don’t ask, don’t tell” will weaken the warrior culture at a time when we have a fight on our hands. – New York Times

John Noonan writes: To date, President Obama's nominations to key defense postings have been mostly pragmatic, starting at the top with the retention of Secretary Gates. However, in the instance of Philip Coyle -- nominated to fill the associate director of national security and international affairs spot in the Office of Science and Technology Policy-- the administration whiffed. Coyle, a long time opponent of ballistic missile defense (dating back to Reagan's SDI days), is an ideologue whose appointment could prove harmful to U.S. security…If theology has crept into the missile defense debate, Coyle is the high priest of nay saying. There's an inherent danger in placing ideologues, particularly those in favor of treaties which negotiate away U.S. security, in high level defense posts. Ballistic missile defense, whether it is Obama's clumsily handled "phased, adaptive" approach or the robust system originally conceived by the Bush administration, will be our first, second, and third lines of defense as more nations develop long range missiles. Coyle's long, steadfast opposition to badly needed defensive systems, and his refusal to bend even when geo-political events dictate, make him a highly dubious candidate for such a critical White House position. – The Weekly Standard blog

Americas

Chilean emergency management officials announced Thursday that they had significantly overestimated the death toll from last weekend’s earthquake, lowering the figure from about 805 people to about 279. Carmen Fernández, the director of the emergency management agency, known as Onemi, said in an interview that in several badly damaged municipalities, officials had erroneously included the names of people who were missing on the lists of those who had been killed. “The number of people dead continues to be lamentable,” she said. “But it is significantly lower than those killed in earthquakes like this one that have occurred in other parts of the world.” – New York Times
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Africa

Somalia's hardline Islamists have banned English and science studies in schools in the southern Afmadow town after the education centers there ignored the rebels' call for fighters, residents and teachers say. Residents of the town near the border with Kenya said three schools had been given one month to comply with the order by al Shabaab rebels and switch the curriculum to accommodate Arabic and Islamic studies. "They asked us to contribute students to their militia so that they can fight for them, but we rejected their proposal," said one teacher who wanted to remain anonymous. Al Shabaab, which Washington says is al Qaeda's proxy in the failed Horn of Africa state, wants to topple Somalia's U.N.-backed government and impose its own strict version of sharia, Islamic law. The heavily armed group controls much of the south and parts of the capital Mogadishu, and courts run by its clerics have ordered executions, floggings and amputations. - Reuters

The U.S. envoy to the United Nations accused Sudan on Thursday of "cavalier" violations of U.N. sanctions aimed at limiting the flow of arms and curbing violence in its conflict-torn Darfur region. "We know that weapons continue to flow into Darfur, acts of sexual and gender-based violence continue unabated and with impunity, military over-flights and offensive actions continue," U.S. Ambassador Susan Rice told reporters after a closed-door meeting of the U.N. Security Council. A 2005 U.N. embargo bans the transfer of military hardware to Darfur, a remote region in western Sudan about the size of France. Khartoum can import arms, but not for use in Darfur. "The blatant disregard of the will of the council is undermining stability rather than fostering it, which was the aim of the (sanctions) regime in the first place," Rice said. Sudanese Ambassador Abdalmahmoud Abdalhaleem told Reuters that Rice was "swimming against the current of objectivity and common sense." "What we expect of her is to reinforce the current peace process rather than unnecessary notions about the sanctions committee," he said. - Reuters

Pentagon

Resentment of the US government and suspicions over the 9/11 attacks have surfaced in the writings by the Californian identified as the gunman who shot two Pentagon police officers before he was mortally wounded in a hail of return fire. The shooter's death was confirmed early Friday, hours after the Thursday evening assault, as authorities searched for a motive behind the brazen attack. The two officers, grazed by bullets, were treated in a hospital. The attack unfolded at the subway entrance to the massive Defense Department headquarters, as an eerie calm and silence were broken by the explosion of gunfire. "He just reached in his pocket, pulled out a gun and started shooting" at point-blank range, said Richard Keevill, chief of Pentagon police. "He walked up very cool. He had no real emotion on his face." – Fox News

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