FPI Overnight Brief

FPI Overnight Brief
March 24, 2010
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Israel

Washington’s relations with Israel appeared to have reached a new low last night as the White House imposed a virtual news blackout on a meeting between President Obama and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that followed an Israeli threat to delay peace talks by a year. The three-and-a-half hour meeting took place late yesterday out of sight of reporters in the midst of a deepening dispute over Israeli settlements in Jerusalem. Mr Netanyahu left without making any comment, and White House aides conceded that the decision not to hold a press conference reflected strains in the relationship since the announcement of new Israeli settlements in Jerusalem last week. – Times of London

Undeterred by turbulence in its ties with the United States and Britain, Israel on Wednesday confirmed further plans to expand the Jewish presence in occupied East Jerusalem, with more building freshly approved. In a move sure to anger Palestinians and frustrate Western proponents of a freeze on settlement construction, a city official said approval was given to develop a flashpoint neighborhood from which Palestinians were evicted last year. Word of the move came as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu completed an unusually low-profile meeting in Washington with U.S. President Barack Obama for fence-mending talks, after their open spat over East Jerusalem earlier this month. Netanyahu says he regretted the bad timing of an announcement of East Jerusalem building plans during the visit of U.S. Vice President Joe Biden two weeks ago, which Washington called "insulting." But on Monday he insisted before an audience of influential American Jews that "Jerusalem is our capital" and building will continue there as Israel sees fit. His defiant assertion coincided with a public slap to Israel from Britain, which announced it was expelling an Israeli diplomat over the forgery of British passports used by the suspected killers of a Hamas commander in Dubai. - Reuters

Iran

Russia and China have quietly made clear to the Iranian government they want Tehran to change its approach to the nuclear issue and accept a U.N. atomic fuel offer, Western diplomats said on Tuesday. Russia's and China's coordinated diplomatic approaches took place in Tehran around the beginning of March, according to several Western U.N. Security Council diplomats. They said it was significant that two powers seen as blocking Western efforts to get tough on Tehran appeared to be using their influence behind the scenes to ratchet up the pressure on the Islamic Republic. "Russia and China had a demarche in Tehran to try and get them to shift their position on the nuclear issue, particularly with regard to the Tehran Research Reactor," one diplomat told Reuters on condition of anonymity. "The Russians and Chinese were saying that their position (on a new sanctions resolution) would depend on Iran's response to the demarches." Another Western diplomat confirmed the Russian and Chinese demarche…"The Russians said they got nothing from Iran," the second diplomat said. "The Chinese said they got a response from the Iranians to wait a little longer and they will come up with something. But they (China) didn't get anything in the end." - Reuters

China may ultimately be persuaded to abstain in a U.N. Security Council vote on further Iran sanctions, allowing a new resolution to be passed, a leading sanctions expert said on Tuesday. It may take until June before there is support for such a move, and even then the measures adopted are likely to be less than the United States and European Union would like; but it should be sufficient to keep pressure on Tehran, he said. "It really is a push to get big business out of Iran and a push to get China on board with the U.N. resolution, even if on board just means an abstention," said Matthew Levitt, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute and a former deputy assistant secretary for intelligence at the U.S. Treasury. "What will end up happening is China, Lebanon and Brazil will abstain," he said, but there will still be enough votes in the Security Council to pass the resolution and no veto. Any package of sanctions is likely to focus on restricting the operations of Iranian banks and insurance companies, the Iranian state shipping company IRISL and a large engineering group linked to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, he said. - Reuters

Analysis: Iran has shrugged off a second New Year message from U.S. President Barack Obama to Iranians, underlining how far the countries are from starting any meaningful dialogue. At his inauguration last year, Obama offered an outstretched hand if Iran would "unclench its fist". Two months later at Nowruz, the Persian new year, he offered a "new beginning". Obama tried the tactic again at Nowruz last week, saying he still wanted to talk. But he tied the to U.S. efforts to hold Iran "accountable" -- a reference to potential new U.N. sanctions over Iran's nuclear programme -- and attacked Iran's handling of opposition protests. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei made no reference to the appeal in two Nowruz speeches this weekend, but suggested Washington had proved that its talk of normalising relations was hollow since U.S. policies towards Iran had not changed. He focused heavily on the protests, which often turned violent: "Eight months after the elections they took the worst possible stance. The president called those rioters and saboteurs 'civil rights activists'," Khamenei said. Abdulkhaleq Abdullah, a politics professor in the United Arab Emirates, said the contrast to last year's response was stark. "If you compare this year's Obama message to last year's and compare the reactions, we are definitely in for a setback," he said. "The dialogue has not moved one step forward." – Reuters

Rep. Ileana Ros-Lethinen writes: Iran's rogue regime has long engaged in ``ongoing, systematic violations of human rights,'' according to the State Department's annual reports on human rights. Those in power engage in torture, flogging, amputation and stoning. Dissidents are subject to arbitrary detention, imprisonment, violence and murder -- both by the regime and by affiliated vigilante groups…The regime has intensified its repression since it carried out another round of fraudulent ``elections'' in June. Existing restrictions on freedom of expression, the press, association, assembly and religion have increased. Thousands of protestors, dissidents and journalists have been arbitrarily arrested, detained or killed. Innocent men and women have reportedly been shot on the streets. Stalinesque show-trials continue, with demonstrators and other political prisoners charged with the amorphous accusation of being mohareb (rebelling against God), for which the punishment is death…Fortunately, there are many steps that the United States and other responsible nations can take to help. – Miami Herald

Abbas Milani writes: Neither remorse nor threats could stop [Hossein Ali Montazeri] from speaking truth to power, and his forced retreat never became an abdication of moral responsibility. Montazeri continued to denounce the autocratic clerics who came after him, most notably his former protégé, Khamenei. He condemned the election results last summer and dismissed President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's government as being neither legitimate nor legitimately Muslim. His legacy is not just a profile in courage, but also a set of pathbreaking ideas in the thousand-year history of Shiism. He was the first Shiite ayatollah, for example, to declare that members of the Bahai faith must enjoy equal rights. He called nuclear weapons not just immoral but against Islam. More than once, he said that all power in an Islamic state must emanate from the people. He showed how the words of a dedicated individual can morph into a mass movement of millions, and how a man once ridiculed and dismissed by the poisoned whispers of his enemies can become the enduring symbol of a democratic movement that is trying to bring Iran into the modern world at last. – Foreign Policy

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Central Asia

Borut Grgic writes: The risks of a nuclear Iran are not just direct, but also indirect – like nuclear proliferation in the Caspian region. Nuclear terrorism can link up with the region’s already notorious smuggling networks, exposing not only the Caspian, but also increasing the threat of nuclear terrorism in Europe. The solutions are few, but the good thing is that they are obvious. Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan need to be integrated into a broader security umbrella in order to provide an effective deterrent against the Iranian nuclear threat or against the spillover from an international military intervention in Iran. One option is to issue both countries NATO security guarantees, which is probably the more bureaucratic and less sure way of going about extending western security benefits to the two Caspian countries. The other option is series of bilateral security arrangements between the U.S. and Europe and Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan. A bilateral security arrangement with China could also play a positive role. It would be ideal if Europe could be the sole security guarantor for Azerbaijan under the Eastern Partnership umbrella, but the reality is that such a security arrangement is not worth much on the market. Europe’s reputation is tainted by its lack of capacity to take decisive actions when it comes to military interventions. A U.S. security guarantee is the more credible one, and still a necessary add-on to any European-Azeri or European-Turkmen security arrangement. – New Atlanticist

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Afghanistan/Pakistan

The Afghan Taliban say Mullah Omar has named two new deputies after the arrest of his military chief in Pakistan. Abdul Qayuum Zakir and Mullah Akhtar Mohammad Mansoor succeed Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, who Pakistan is holding. The aim was to send "a message that one arrest will not affect our movement", a senior Taliban leader said…Both new Taliban deputies are seen as vital figures in managing the movement's activities in what could be a pivotal year in the Afghan war…Abdul Qayuum Zakir, a former inmate at the US detention facility at Guantanamo Bay, is thought to be about 30. He is said to be very popular with the younger generation of Taliban fighters because of his willingness to fight on the ground beside his men - especially along the new front in Kandahar and Helmand provinces in southern Afghanistan. Reports say Abdul Qayuum Zakir was detained in Guantanamo Bay until 2007 and then deported to Afghanistan before being freed in 2008. ..While Abdul Qayuum Zakir is valued by the militants as a field commander, Mullah Akhtar Mohammad Mansoor is seen as a key behind-the-scenes leader. In his 40s, Mullah Mansoor was part of the original Taliban leadership prior to the attacks of 11 September 2001. Reports say he has been instrumental in managing Taliban logistics and raising funds, especially from the Gulf states. – BBC News

Bill Roggio reports: The US launched yet another airstrike in Pakistan's Taliban controlled-tribal agency of North Waziristan, the fifth in the region in eight days. The deadly unmanned Predators and Reapers strike aircraft targeted a vehicle inside a compound run by the Haqqani Network in Machis, just outside the main town of Miramshah. Six terrorists have been reported killed in the strike. “We have confirmation of four deaths, so far," a Pakistani official told Reuters. "The death toll could be more.” The count was later revised to six killed and three wounded. No senior Taliban or al Qaeda leaders have been reported killed in the strike. Today's airstrike in North Waziristan is the fifth in the Taliban and al Qaeda haven since March 16. The last attack took place in the Datta Khel region on March 21. Four Taliban fighters were reported killed in that attack. The two latest strikes put the March total at seven. So far this year, the US has carried out 24 strikes in Pakistan; all of them have taken place in North Waziristan. In 2009, the US carried out 53 strikes in Pakistan; and in 2008, the US carried out 36 strikes in the country. – Long War Journal

As Pakistan and the United States struggle to overcome what both characterize as a mutual "trust deficit," the Obama administration hopes that high-level talks will consolidate the new partnership the president promised last fall in exchange for Pakistan's cooperation in shutting down Taliban and al-Qaeda havens. Relations have significantly improved in recent months, with a recent tripling of U.S. economic assistance, ongoing Pakistani military offensives against insurgent strongholds in the mountainous region bordering Afghanistan and the recent arrests of senior Taliban figures. But the partnership remains precarious and prone to suspicion, eruptions and posturing. Both sides are looking for additional commitments, according to officials in Washington and Islamabad who spoke on the condition of anonymity on the eve of the talks…Pakistan is expected to reiterate long-standing requests for armed drone aircraft, officials said, as well for additional helicopters and other equipment. Resentful of U.S. accounting demands, the Pakistani military wants a smoother transfer of money to support its counterterrorism efforts; its civilian government wants more control over economic assistance programs, trade concessions and increased U.S. market access. – Washington Post

Josh Rogin reports: On Capitol Hill, where lawmakers are still smarting from the last deal they made with Pakistan (when Pakistan complained about the billions of dollars U.S. taxpayers are giving them) and still fighting over who gets to spend those billions, the prospect of a sweeping new nuclear deal with Pakistan seems too far-fetched to even discuss right now. "I don't think it's on the table right now considering all over the other issues we have to confront," Senate Foreign Relations chairman John Kerry, D-MA, told The Cable. "There are countless things that they would have to do in order to achieve it. If they're willing to do all those things, we'll see." Kerry emphasized that he believed a nuclear deal was not "directly" part of the strategic dialogue this week. "There are a lot of things that come first before that. It's really premature," he went on. "It's appropriate as something for them to aspire to and have as a goal out there, but I don't think it's realistic in the near term." His words were echoed by his Republican counterpart Richard Lugar, D-IN, who told The Cable he believes the idea of a nuclear deal should be delinked from the strategic dialogue. "I think it's premature. It's not likely to be part of the agenda at this time," he said. – The Cable

Michael O’Hanlon writes: [A]fter traveling across the country in recent days as a guest of the Pakistani military, I was convinced that Pakistan has become much more committed to battling extremists over the last couple of years, as the country felt its own security directly threatened. Things are complicated, as always in this fractious land. Pakistan’s resolve is clearest against its own internal enemies. And while its will to pursue the Afghan Taliban has grown, its policies are changing incrementally, not fundamentally. It is rebuilding trust with America only slowly. And its obsession with India will continue to constrain its ability and willingness to act against the groups that threaten the NATO mission across the Afghan border… [W]e must bear in mind that the Pakistani government rules one of the most anti-American populations in the world, and even its elites see us as oft-unreliable ourselves. Washington must stay realistic, and patient, about what can be expected of Pakistan. – New York Times

Christine Fair writes: Any civilian nuclear deal for Pakistan would have to be conditions-based. It would not be equivalent to India's deal, which recognizes India's nonproliferation commitments and enables India to compete strategically with China globally. A civilian nuclear deal with Pakistan has a different logic: to reset bilateral relations that are bedeviled with layers of mistrust on both sides. Pakistan disconcerts the world due to its nuclear proliferation record and because it supports myriad Islamist militants menacing the international community. This deal should therefore be conditioned upon access to nuclear scientist A.Q. Khan and direct information about his nuclear black markets, as well as verifiable evidence that Pakistan is reversing its support for militant groups and taking active steps to dismantle the architecture for terrorism. – Foreign Policy

China

The cyber-attack on Google and other U.S. companies was part of a suspected Chinese government operation launched last year that used human intelligence techniques and high-technology to steal corporate secrets, according to U.S. government and private-sector cybersecurity specialists. More worrying, however, is the likelihood that the cyber-attacks that led Google this week to end its cooperation with Beijing-controlled censorship and move its search engine service to Hong Kong included planting undetectable software on American company networks that could allow further clandestine access or even total control of computers in the future. An Obama administration official said the U.S. government was able, with some confidence, to link the attack, first discovered last summer, to Chinese government organs. However, the official declined to provide details to avoid making future Chinese cyber-attack identification more difficult. "The attack was very targeted. It targeted engineers and quality assurance developers, people with very high levels of access into the organization," said George Kurtz, chief technology officer for computer security firm McAfee who investigated the attack for several of the affected companies. "The infections were actually very few," he said. "It wasn't like a mass infection across a large organization. It was very targeted." – Washington Times

China began blocking results for sensitive searches on Google's Hong Kong-based Web site Tuesday, after the Internet search giant said it would redirect users from the mainland to the Hong Kong site in an effort to avoid Chinese censorship. Searches on Google.com.hk for subjects such as the banned spiritual sect Falun Gong or Tiananmen 64 -- shorthand for the June 4, 1989, crackdown on student-led protests in Beijing -- produced a blank screen or an error message on a computer in Beijing, the Chinese capital. Early in the morning, results were generated but the links were blocked. Other signs were mounting that China was intent on punishing the Internet giant for its bold but risky decision to publicly confront China's policy of limiting the free flow of information. – Washington Post

A three-day trial in China of four employees from the British-Australian mining giant Rio Tinto concluded Wednesday, but there was not yet a verdict on the charges of accepting bribes and stealing commercial secrets. Lawyers for the defendants said that a verdict would likely be announced within a month. The lawyers also said that the defendants face jail sentences of between 5 and 15 years…The trial began Monday with guilty pleas by all four defendants, including Stern Hu, an Australian citizen who served as a high-level executive here for Rio Tinto, according to lawyers in the case. But the pleas — admitting to accepting bribes — conflicted with the widely publicized accounts of the case made over the past several months by Chinese officials and the state media. The second and third days of the trial were scheduled to deal with allegations of the theft of commercial secrets. Under Chinese rules, that meant the trial was even more closed on the second and third days than the first, and even consular officials from Australia were not permitted to attend…“There must be a very tight lockdown on any disclosure,” said David Kelly, a China expert who teaches at the University of Technology in Sydney, Australia. “This is the way Chinese law has always operated. And they only take a case if they know they’re going to win it, so there’s no room for defense.” – New York Times

Emily Parker writes: Twitter, though blocked by the Great Firewall, has a small but fiercely loyal following on the mainland. Chinese use it to break news, offer frank opinions, and find like-minded individuals. Artist and social activist Ai Weiwei recently referred to Twitter as "a ray of light" in "a very dark room." The fact that Chinese can access this service has much to do with Twitter's design. Twitter has an open application programming interface, or API. Twitter's API allows people to post and retrieve tweets on sites other than Twitter. "Coders in China can still find wholesale access to twitter.com blocked," says Jonathan Zittrain, co-director of Harvard's Berkman Center for Internet and Society. "The idea is that coders elsewhere get to Twitter, and offer up feeds at their own URLs—which the government has to chase down one by one." The Twitter API is just one example of an innovative way a U.S. company can help Chinese netizens gain access to uncensored information. Western companies can also address the Great Firewall by developing safer and cheaper virtual private networks that allow Chinese to access the Web as if they were outside of China. What's important is that these are fundamentally technological approaches, not overtly political ones. – Wall Street Journal

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North Korea

There is mounting evidence that Kim Jong Il is losing the propaganda war inside North Korea, with more than half the population now listening to foreign news, grass-roots cynicism undercutting state myths and discontent rising even among elites. A survey of refugees has found that "everyday forms of resistance" in the North are taking root as large swaths of the population believe that pervasive corruption, rising inequity and chronic food shortages are the fault of the government in Pyongyang -- and not of the United States, South Korea or other foreign forces. The report will be released this week by the East-West Center, a research group established by Congress. The report comes amid unconfirmed accounts from inside North Korea of a rising number of starvation deaths caused by a bad harvest and bungled currency reform that disrupted food markets, caused runaway inflation and triggered widespread citizen unrest. – Washington Post

The North Korean leader Kim Jong Il is suffering from kidney failure which requires dialysis and also has partial paralysis following a 2008 stroke, according to the head of a South Korean state research institute. Nam Sung-Wook, director of the Institute for National Security Strategy, said the paleness of Mr Kim's fingernails indicates the 68-year-old leader has chronic kidney disease. The institute has links to South Korea's National Intelligence Service. Mr Nam's remarks, in a speech at a Seoul forum, were quoted by South Korea’s Yonhap news agency and were confirmed by the organisers of the event. – Times of London

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Iraq

Iraq's two main Shi'ite political blocs, one led by Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki and another whose leaders have close ties to Iran, are discussing a merger that could widen Iraq's sectarian divide. A union between Maliki's State of Law and the Iraqi National Alliance, two of the top three vote-getters in Iraq's March 7 parliamentary election, could sideline secularist former premier Iyad Allawi, whose cross-sectarian Iraqiya coalition won strong support from minority Sunnis. A merger could also push aside Maliki, who wants another term at the helm. One of INA's major components, the Sadrist movement of anti-American cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, was the top vote-getter for INA and has poor relations with the premier…"There has been more than one meeting with INA to reach a deal to form an alliance or merge both coalitions," Sami al-Askari, a prominent member of Maliki's State of Law, told Reuters shortly after another leading member of the bloc issued a public statement saying the two needed to merge. State of Law is running in a virtual dead heat with Allawi's coalition. None of the leading blocs is expected to win enough seats to form a government alone and talks between parties and coalitions about potential alliances are in full swing. - Reuters

The Kurds, the strongest U.S. ally in Iraq and a leading political kingmaker, appear likely to lose some of their influence to a stridently anti-American group that did surprisingly well in this month's parliamentary elections. Fiery cleric Moqtada al-Sadr's movement -- whose militiamen have battled the Americans and were blamed for some of the worst sectarian violence of recent years -- is positioned to take a pivotal role in the next parliament. The Shiite Muslim group, which had largely been driven underground by U.S. and Iraqi forces, has made a remarkable comeback by developing a sophisticated political organization in addition to its armed wing. Meanwhile, the staunchly pro-American Kurdistan Alliance has been weakened by a fracturing of the Kurdish electorate, according to a preliminary count of Iraq's March 7 vote…“The Sadrists had political and military power that surpassed that of the government, but they misused it and ended up in jails and in exile," said political analyst Ibrahim al-Sumaidaie. "Now, they have mastered their political power. They will find that the political game will give them more power and a wider role than their guns." – Washington Post

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Americas

Faced with soaring drug violence that Mexico's military has failed to stem, U.S. and Mexican officials said Tuesday that they will seek to bolster nonmilitary spending on police and courts and look for ways to help ravaged communities, but they offered few concrete proposals for fighting the powerful drug cartels. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, who led a high-powered delegation of Cabinet members to Mexico, said she and her counterpart, Foreign Secretary Patricia Espinosa, agreed on the need for a joint survey to better understand the whys and hows of drug consumption in the two countries. Clinton also repeated statements that the appetite for drugs in the United States greatly contributes to drug trafficking and its attendant violence in Mexico -- and that the United States must do more "within its laws" to slow the flow of illegal weapons and drug cash heading south – Washington Post

Venezuelan authorities have jailed a former state governor and presidential candidate who accused President Hugo Chávez's government of links to subversive groups in Latin America. The detention of Oswaldo Álvarez Paz, a veteran of the opposition COPEI party but not one of Chávez's most prominent foes, will fuel criticism that the Venezuelan leader is taking his nation down an increasingly dictatorial route. Picked up at home Monday night, Álvarez joins a list of several dozen Chávez opponents now in jail, living in exile or facing probes in the South American oil-exporting country. With the political atmosphere heating up before legislative elections in September -- seen as a barometer for a 2012 presidential vote -- Chávez says his opponents are increasingly breaking laws in their desperation to topple him. – Washington Post

Jamie Daremblum writes: Now more than ever - at a time when democracy is under siege in Venezuela, Bolivia, Nicaragua and Ecuador; when drug violence is tearing apart Mexico and threatens Central America; when the region is still recovering from the global economic crisis - the Western Hemisphere needs a strong multilateral institution dedicated to upholding democratic values and promoting regional cooperation. If the OAS is unwilling to stand up for democracy in its member countries, it will cease to be relevant. I fear the organization is headed in that direction, but it's not too late to change course. - RealClearWorld

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Russia/Georgia

Representatives of six Georgian opposition parties met in Tbilisi on March 22 to discuss coordinating a new program of measures to bring about peaceful regime change. Specifically, they drafted an appeal to the international community to convene a conference that would focus on ending what they termed the "dictatorship" of President Mikheil Saakashvili and on restoring Georgia's territorial integrity. The meeting was initiated by the Labor Party, which for years has criticized Saakashvili's policies, but at the same time eschewed broader cooperation with other opposition groups. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty

The United States has been refusing to include the missile defense issue in the new strategic offensive arms reduction treaty, said chief of the Russian armed forces’ General Staff, General of the Army Nikolai Makarov. “The treaty is about 95% prepared, but individual aspects have yet to be negotiated, including the American side’s consent to include the problem of missile defense in the treaty – a matter of crucial importance for us,” Makarov said in an interview with Rossiiskaya Gazeta, published on Tuesday. Missile defense must be entered on the strategic arms reduction treaty in view of the United States’ plans to deploy elements of its missile defense system in Poland, Romania, the Czech Republic and Bulgaria, he said. Makarov said the inclusion of missile defense reflects Russia’s national interests, noting that the Russian delegation to the talks will defend its basic position. – Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance

Vladimir Kara-Muza writes: Yet for all the indignation, the difference between the March 20 protests and the previous opposition rallies was striking. This time, there were no beatings, no mass arrests, no criminal charges against activists. There were some 70 detentions—but this in the context of over 20,000 anti-Putin protesters in 48 Russian cities. Thousands-strong rallies in Irkutsk and Vladivostok passed off peacefully, without police interference…Kremlin leaders want to be “equals” on the world stage. They enjoy G-8 summits, state visits and photo opportunities with their Western counterparts. Not to mention the real estate and bank accounts that members of Russia’s “elite” allegedly hold abroad. All this gives the West important leverage that can be used, at the very least, to reduce the level of political repression in Russia. It is too bad that so many Western leaders choose to ignore fundamental values in favor of short-term deals with the authoritarian regime. Perhaps that is the difference between politicians and statesmen. – World Affairs Journal

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Europe

Bosnia can progress toward NATO membership only as a united country pursuing political, democratic and military reforms, NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said Tuesday. Rasmussen headed a delegation of the North Atlantic Council on a visit to Bosnia ahead of a meeting of NATO Foreign Ministers in Tallin in April, when they will discuss Bosnia's application for a formal Membership Action Plan. His comments came as Bosnia's two autonomous units -- the Serb Republic and the Muslim-Croat federation -- seem more at odds than ever since the Bosnian war ended in 1995, unable to agree on key laws or reforms of central government. "Bosnia-Herzegovina will get Membership Action Plan once it achieves the necessary progress in its reform efforts," Rasmussen told a news conference in Sarajevo. - Reuters

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Middle East

President Hosni Mubarak’s health continues to improve after surgery 17 days ago to remove his gallbladder, easing anxiety in this nation of 80 million people where uncertainty fueled rumors that the president was seriously ill, or even dead. For the moment, political commentators and many Egyptians appear to have returned to their default position: that little or nothing will change in the priorities or administration of the state and that President Mubarak will keep power for years to come. “He will run for president again, and nothing will change,”’ said Mohamed Salmawy, president of the Egyptian Writers Union. But while the mood has calmed here since President Mubarak appeared on television and in photographs, his illness and public absence underscored the extent of confusion over the future of the largest Arab nation, and one of Washington’s most important allies in the Middle East. – New York Times

Turkey will not send its recalled ambassador back to Washington until the Obama administration and Congress make clear they will not judge Turkish history, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said Tuesday. The country recalled its envoy, Namik Tan, last month after the House Foreign Affairs Committee passed a resolution labeling Turkey's killings of 1.5 million Armenians in 1915 a genocide. "We cannot accept the judgment of members of the foreign relations committee, who do not know anything about the history," Davutoglu said in an interview in Ankara. Davutoglu set two conditions for Tan's return: The administration and Congress must show they will refrain from deciding what he called "our history," and the two countries "should agree to develop our strategic alliance," he said. – Washington Post

Africa

For the past three years, the Shabab, one of Africa’s most fearsome militant Islamist groups, have been terrorizing the Somali public, chopping off hands, stoning people to death and banning TV, music and even bras in their quest to turn Somalia into a seventh-century-style Islamic state. At the same time, they have drawn increasingly close to Al Qaeda, deploying suicide bombers, attracting jihadists from around the world and prompting American concerns that they may be spreading into Kenya, Yemen and beyond. But could Somalia finally be reaching a tipping point against the Shabab? Not only is Somalia’s transitional government gearing up for a major offensive against the Shabab — with the American military providing intelligence and logistical support — but Mogadishu’s beleaguered population, sensing a change in the salt-sticky air, is beginning to turn against them. – New York Times

The prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC) said on Tuesday that monitoring Sudan's election next month would be like monitoring a vote in Hitler's Germany. Prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo pressed for the arrest warrant issued by the ICC a year ago against Sudanese President Omar Hassan al-Bashir for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in Darfur region. Bashir is contesting the poll. Speaking a day after Bashir threatened to expel international election monitors for saying the vote may have to be delayed to deal with logistical problems, Moreno-Campo told a Brussels seminar: "It's like monitoring a Hitler election. It's a huge challenge." Moreno-Campo is not involved in election monitoring. The European Union plans to send 130 observers to Sudan in April to assess the election, the country's first multi-party vote in more than two decades. Accusations of fraud have mounted ahead of the vote. The only long-term international observer mission in Sudan, the Carter Center, has said the election remains "at risk on multiple fronts" and urged Sudan to lift harsh restrictions on rallies and end fighting in Darfur ahead of the ballot. - Reuters

An Islamic court in Nigeria has banned a rights group from hosting debates on the Twitter and Facebook websites on the use of amputations as a punishment. The court, in the northern city of Kaduna, backed a case brought by a pro-Sharia group arguing that the forums would mock the Sharia system. The rights group, the Civil Rights Congress of Nigeria, said it would appeal against the ruling. Sharia judges can order amputations of limbs for petty crimes in some states. But the courts mostly deal with domestic issues such as marriage and divorce. The newspaper ThisDay quoted the judge's ruling as saying:"An order is hereby given restraining the respondents either by themselves or their agents from opening a chat forum on Facebook, Twitter, or any blog for the purpose of the debate on the amputation of Malam Buba Bello Jangebe." – BBC News

Ideas

Somali pirates, Mexican drug smugglers and Islamic terrorists are the types of groups that pose the greatest threat to the United States in the coming decades and, according to a report released on Tuesday, the Pentagon is not adapting quickly enough to stop them. The National Strategy Information Center said the U.S. military will remain in a 20th-century mindset if it does not appreciate the singular significance of armed groups emerging from weak, failing or failed countries. In its 36-page report, the Washington think tank said the nation's greatest threats will not come from the armies of other nations. "The seriousness of these challenges is further magnified by the fact that these state and nonstate actors often do not act alone," the report said. "Rather, they develop cooperative relationships ranging from de facto coalitions to loose affiliations. "These challenges cannot be managed if we remain diverted by 20th-century, state-centric mindsets and capabilities," it said. "There is a creative, relatively inexpensive 21st-century security agenda available that, if adopted, can make a difference — and save U.S. lives and treasure." – Washington Times

Helle Dale writes: In light of the Obama Administration’s stated intentions to focus on public diplomacy—and indeed in light of the President’s personal interest in the subject—there is room for a long-overdue debate on public diplomacy. As for Congress, the relevant congressional oversight committees should: hold hearings as strategy documents are produced by the executive branch to illuminate the shortcomings of existing public diplomacy structures within the U.S. government; hold hearings on each of the multiple public diplomacy and strategic communications challenges faced by the United States today and the specific actions that the U.S. government can take to address them; and fund pilot projects that can illustrate the effectiveness of foreign audience research in formulating targeted messaging to build the case for more extensive, strategic audience research. Such oversight will provide America with a foundation for the revitalized and multifaceted public diplomacy doctrine demanded by the challenges of the 21st century. – Heritage Foundation
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Missile Defense

Baker Spring writes: Basically, the U.S. has three alternatives as it scans today’s global strategic landscape. It can go directly for nuclear disarmament, taking unilateral steps to show the way. Even President Obama, who has made nuclear disarmament a cornerstone of his foreign policy, appears reluctant to take this direct route. The second alternative is to multilateralize the U.S.-Soviet relationship of vulnerability to nuclear attack. This poses the problem of trying to find the proper balance of nuclear terror in a multilateral setting. This option could be extraordinarily destabilizing and rise the likelihood of the use of nuclear weapons, most likely by miscalculation. By definition, it will spell the end of the goal of nuclear disarmament. The third option is to pursue more fundamentally defensive strategic postures for the U.S. and other nations. This is the best option for keeping the world as far from the nuclear precipice as possible until it is clear that a world without nuclear weapons can be achieved. This approach will permit the U.S. both to defend itself and bolster the security relationships it has with its friends and allies. – The Foundry
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Southeast Asia

Myanmar's detained opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi said on Tuesday she "would not dream" of registering her party for this year's elections, but added the decision was not for her to make, according to her lawyer. Suu Kyi, who has been detained for 15 of the last 21 years, would refuse to sign her party up for the polls because of "unjust" election laws, but insisted the comment was not an order or an instruction to other members. "Personally, I would not dream of registering the NLD under such an unjust and one-sidedly drawn-up state constitution," her lawyer and National League for Democracy (NLD) party member, Nyan Win, quoted Suu Kyi as saying after meeting the Nobel laureate. - Reuters
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