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FPI Overnight Brief

Friday, 26 March 2010, 1:20 pm
Press Release: Foreign Policy Initiative

FPI Overnight Brief

Foreign Policy Initiative

March 25, 2010

Special Announcement

On the morning of Tuesday, April 6, the Foreign Policy Initiative will host a two-panel event analyzing the state of the Green Movement, and what the United States can do to support Iran’s democrats, and resolve the nuclear question once and for all. Please RSVP by visiting FPI’s website.

FPI apologizes for this morning's technical issues that have delayed the publication of the Overnight Brief.

START

The United States and Russia have reached a deal on their most extensive nuclear arms-control agreement in nearly two decades, the Kremlin announced Wednesday. The pact appeared to represent President Obama's first victory in his ambitious agenda to move toward a nuclear-free world…Officials in both countries would not discuss details of the new accord, but the general outlines have emerged during the year-long negotiations. Each side will reduce its most dangerous nuclear weapons -- those deployed for long-range missions-- from a ceiling of 2,200 to between 1,500 and 1,675. And the two militaries will make relatively small cuts in the number of jets and land- or submarine-based missiles that carry nuclear warheads and bombs. A Kremlin spokesman told reporters that the two countries' presidents would talk soon to decide when to sign the pact. "All documents related to the new treaty have been agreed upon," he said, speaking on the condition of anonymity because of diplomatic sensitivity. The declaration appeared to surprise the White House, with spokesman Robert Gibbs saying that the two sides were "close" to a treaty but that it would not be announced until Obama could speak with President Dmitry Medvedev, probably in the next few days. – Washington Post

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Josh Rogin reports: American and Russian negotiators have come to terms on how to handle the thorniest point of contention inside the negotiations over a new nuclear arms-reduction treaty: missile defense. Russia had been stalling the last stage of the negotiations over the issue, holding fast to its position that missile defense must be included in some way in the new treaty. The U.S. side has insisted the treaty be confined only to offensive systems. Meanwhile, the old agreement, known as the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START), expired last December and U.S. President Barack Obama has been pushing to complete the new deal before some 44 world leaders come to Washington for a major nuclear conference beginning April 12. Washington was abuzz Wednesday after the New York Times reported there had been a "breakthrough" in the talks, but the Times never disclosed what the breakthrough was. The Cable got the details in an exclusive interview with Senate Foreign Relations ranking Republican Richard Lugar, R-IN, who met with Obama along with committee chairman John Kerry, D-MA, Wednesday morning. "Missile defense will not be part of the treaty, but in the preamble both parties will state their positions and there will be a mention of offense and defense and the importance of those," Lugar said. He added that because the missile-defense statements were outside the main text, "they are in essence editorial opinions." That closely tracks the original understanding that Obama and Medvedev agreed upon during their July meeting in Moscow, as enshrined in the Joint Understanding they issued at the time. – The Cable
Iran

The U.S. has backed away from pursuing a number of tough measures against Iran in order to win support from Russia and China for a new United Nations Security Council resolution on sanctions, according to people familiar with the matter. Among provisions removed from the original draft resolution the U.S. sent to key allies last month were sanctions aimed at choking off Tehran's access to international banking services and capital markets, and closing international airspace and waters to Iran's national air cargo and shipping lines, according to the people…The U.K. and Germany, concerned that Russia and China would reject the resolution outright and preferring to turn up pressure on Iran gradually, persuaded U.S. officials to drop or soften several elements, including some of the document's harshest provisions, the people said. U.S. officials said they wouldn't comment on the day-by-day negotiations taking place among the Security Council members. But they stressed that the Obama administration is seeking the toughest measures possible against Tehran while maintaining unity among the five permanent members of the Security Council and Germany, which are drafting the sanctions. "We are seeking an appropriate resolution that puts significant pressure on the government," State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley said Wednesday. "We continue to consult with various countries, and it's our desire to maintain unanimity. It will be a strong united statement that Iran will have to pay attention to." – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

China pledged for the first time Wednesday to join in substantive talks on sanctioning Iran for defying U.N. demands that it stop enriching uranium, according to Britain's U.N. ambassador. Liu Zhenmin, China's newly appointed negotiator on the Iranian nuclear crisis, participated in a conference call on Iran's nuclear program Wednesday morning with the political directors from the United States, Russia, France, Britain and Germany. However, China's U.N. envoy, Li Baodong, said Beijing remains committed to resolving the nuclear standoff with Iran through negotiations. Liu said China is prepared to begin discussions on elements of a U.S. text outlining a set of proposed sanctions against Iran, according to Security Council diplomats. "My understanding is that they have agreed to engage substantively," Britain's U.N. ambassador, Mark Lyall Grant, said…China's participation in Wednesday's conference call was the most encouraging signal from Beijing yet that it is prepared to consider U.S.-backed efforts to impose sanctions to compel Iran to halt its nuclear activities...But Security Council diplomats cautioned that any nuclear talks are likely to be protracted and that China continues to argue that negotiations, not economic sanctions, remain the best way to bring about change in Tehran. – Washington Post

Laura Rozen reports: A spike in Iran’s gasoline imports in recent months indicates that the Iranian government "is seriously concerned about the effect that gasoline sanctions may have on the already ailing Iranian economy," Booz-Allen's Persia House reports. The group's analysis shows that Iran has increased its gasoline imports by 1500 percent in the last year and reduced domestic consumption of gasoline by five percent in the last year. - Politico
Afghanistan/Pakistan

Pakistan said Wednesday that it was satisfied with U.S. pledges, made during a day-long strategic conference in Washington, to increase and streamline the delivery of military and economic aid and to "move from a relationship to a partnership." "Today, I am a happy man and a satisfied man," Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi said in a news conference with Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton. "I'm satisfied because you finally agreed to many of the things that we've been sharing in our discussions over the last, you know, two years." The Obama administration's primary goals for the gathering were to create a new level of bonding between the two countries and to win increased Pakistani cooperation in the fight against the Taliban and al-Qaeda. U.S. officials, aware of Pakistan's often-prickly response to perceived slights, were deferential to the Pakistanis and offered fulsome praise. – Washington Post

Defense Secretary Robert Gates said on Wednesday the timing was still not right for reconciliation with senior Afghan Taliban leaders, acknowledging military pressure had yet to weaken the group enough. "The shift of momentum is not yet strong enough to convince the Taliban leaders that they are in fact going to lose," Gates told lawmakers during a congressional hearing. "And it's when they begin to have doubts whether they can be successful that they may be willing to make a deal. I don't think we're there yet," he added. Gates's comments, upholding Washington's long-standing concerns, came the same day a negotiator for one of Afghanistan's main insurgent groups, Hezb-i-Islami, said its leadership was ready to make peace and act as a "bridge" to the Taliban, if Washington fulfills plans to start pulling out troops next year. - Reuters

Israel

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ended a troubled U.S. visit on Thursday, saying progress had been made toward settling a dispute with the White House over Jewish housing construction in occupied East Jerusalem. "We think we have found a golden way that would allow the Americans to move the peace process forward while preserving our national interests," Netanyahu said just before boarding a plane to fly back to Israel early on Thursday. In a flurry of meetings throughout Wednesday, U.S. and Israeli officials scrambled to put together a package of goodwill gestures that President Barack Obama hoped could persuade Palestinians to return to peace talks. Israeli sources had said Netanyahu could not finalize any confidence-building measures until he presented them to his Cabinet. He leads a coalition government dominated by pro-settler parties, including his own. Nir Hefez, a spokesman for Netanyahu, said a group of seven senior Israeli cabinet ministers would convene with Netanyahu in Jerusalem late on Thursday to discuss the package of confidence-building measures. - Reuters

U.S. and Israeli officials struggled Wednesday to resolve a sharp dispute over U.S. demands that Israel make goodwill gestures to lure Palestinian officials back to the negotiating table. Visiting Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, who held two hours of talks with President Obama on Tuesday night, cleared his schedule Wednesday to undertake additional negotiations with senior U.S. officials, including special peace envoy George J. Mitchell and White House adviser Dennis Ross. The prime minister, who was to leave Washington late Wednesday, also went twice to the Israeli Embassy to talk securely with officials back home about the negotiations. U.S. and Israeli officials are working on a document dubbed "the blueprint," which covers all issues, including Jerusalem, that need to be resolved to let talks go forward. Netanyahu will attempt to sell it to his cabinet while Mitchell will take it to Arab and Palestinian officials for approval. Netanyahu's talks with Obama were shrouded in an unusual news blackout, with no statement issued after the meeting and no official photographs released. U.S. officials said that the two men met one-on-one at the White House for about 1 1/2 hours. Netanyahu then huddled with his senior staff in the Roosevelt Room for a further 1 1/2 hours before requesting a second meeting with Obama. The president returned from the White House residence, and Netanyahu is said to have made some kind of counteroffer in that half-hour meeting that did not meet with U.S. acceptance. – Washington Post

China

Despite mounting pressure in Congress for the Obama administration to declare China a currency manipulator, the Chinese government is giving no indication that it will change its exchange rate policy. After meeting with officials at the Treasury and Commerce Departments on Wednesday, China’s deputy commerce minister, Zhong Shan, told reporters, “The Chinese government will not succumb to foreign pressures to adjust our exchange rate.” Mr. Zhong reiterated a statement this month by the Chinese premier, Wen Jiabao, who said he did not believe the currency, the renminbi, was undervalued. “It is wrong for the United States to jump to the conclusion that China is manipulating currency from the sheer fact that China is enjoying a trade surplus,” Mr. Zhong told reporters in a meeting at the Chinese Embassy. “Besides, it’s wrong for the United States to press for the appreciation of the renminbi and threaten to impose punitive tariffs on Chinese experts. This is unacceptable to China.” Mr. Zhong said that “the basic stability of the renminbi” was generally beneficial, because “a great surge in the value of the renminbi would hurt the economies of developing countries, especially the least-developed countries.” – New York Times

Christopher Walker and Sarah Cook write: Observers such as the scholar Larry Diamond have identified countries that are semi-democratic, rather than autocracies, as the most promising ground for expanding the ranks of consolidated democracies globally. The patently negative aspects of the Chinese Communist Party’s developing world influence could deal a real blow to this aspiration. Findings from Freedom House’s global analysis of political rights and civil liberties put this phenomenon in perspective. Over the past five years countries with only some features of institutionalized democratic systems have slipped significantly — 57 countries within the “partly free” category have experienced declines, while only 38 improved. Beijing’s deepening involvement in these cases may generate a number of effects, some perhaps positive for short-term economic development. But the dark underbelly of the Chinese regime’s involvement — the opacity of its aid and the illiberal conditions that underpin it — means that over the long haul, incentives for strengthening accountable governance and basic human rights are being warped, or even reversed. – International Herald Tribune

Iraq

Senior politicians from Prime Minister Nouri Maliki's ruling coalition warned Tuesday that Shiite Muslim-dominated southern Iraq could severely loosen its ties with Baghdad if the nation's electoral commission failed to meet its demand for a manual recount of ballots in parliamentary elections. The politicians, who also echoed Maliki's warning Sunday that sectarian violence could return without a recount, accused the U.S. Embassy of working against them. In turn, Western diplomats and advisors to the Iraqi government described Maliki's circle as terrified of losing power and said Iraq was entering a dangerous period. Preliminary results of the March 7 balloting are due Friday, but the Independent High Electoral Commission has already made it clear it does not intend to conduct a ballot-by-ballot recount. The U.S. Embassy and the United Nations have said that the elections appeared to have been carried out in a credible fashion, with no evidence of widespread fraud. An analysis of the latest figures by the U.S. military has projected that Maliki's slate will lose the popular vote but win 90 parliamentary seats, compared with 87 seats for the Iraqiya list of his rival Iyad Allawi, a secular Shiite and previous prime minister. Such a narrow outcome would make it difficult for Maliki to cobble together a ruling coalition in parliament, observers say, explaining the unease among Maliki supporters. – Los Angeles Times

The Iraqi prime minister's efforts to forge a governing Shi'ite alliance inched closer Wednesday after he met for the first time with members of a party led by an influential anti-American cleric who has been one of the prime minister's staunchest critics. The State of Law coalition, led by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, has reached out to the Iran-backed religious Iraqi National Alliance, or INA, since the March 7 parliamentary elections. But the meeting late Tuesday with a two-member delegation from the Sadrist Trend, the movement of cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, marked the first meeting with Sadrists in particular. While exact results of the election have not been released yet, the Sadrists are expected to make up the largest portion of the INA to win parliamentary seats. Ali al-Adeeb, a candidate on Mr. al-Maliki's State of Law list, confirmed Tuesday's meeting. So did a senior Sadrist official, Karrar al-Khafaji, who said the negotiations with Mr. al-Maliki were "positive" and the two sides have "common ties." While it is too soon to say whether the meeting will lead to more solid cooperation between Mr. al-Maliki and the Sadrists -- longtime enemies -- both sides would have something to gain from working together. – Associated Press

The War

Saudi Arabia said Wednesday that its security forces had arrested 113 militants with ties to Al Qaeda who had been planning attacks against oil operations and security facilities in the eastern part of the kingdom. Gen. Mansour al-Turki, a spokesman for the Saudi Interior Ministry, said the arrests were conducted over the last five months and were aimed at three independent militant groups linked to the Yemeni branch of Al Qaeda, which has been implicated in numerous attacks across the region, as well as a failed attempt on Dec. 25 to bring down a commercial flight over Detroit. Officials said most of the suspects had been captured near Saudi Arabia’s border with Yemen, and said they had seized weapons and ammunition, as well as cameras, prepaid phone cards and computers. They did not specify which Saudi facilities were potential targets of an attack, or say more precisely when the suspects had been arrested. “This is a job that has been done in five months,” General Turki said in a telephone interview. “We usually can’t announce it until we make sure we deal with others related to this organization. We announce it after we make sure that we got everybody. This is part of our job, to combat Al Qaeda.” – New York Times

Daveed Gartenstein-Ross analyzes: It is unclear if the present plot was intended to be catastrophic or merely disruptive. The tactics and weaponry involved (suicide bombers, explosive belts) are more suggestive of a disruptive attack. But that should not distract from the fact that these arrests are a reminder of the oil supply's vulnerability. – Long War Journal

A U.S. consular official originally denied terrorism suspect Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab a visa to enter the United States in 2004 after finding false information on his application, but that official was overruled by a supervisor, according to senior government sources. Because the 2004 situation was considered resolved, it was not revisited in 2008, when Abdulmutallab received a second U.S. visa, which allowed him to board a Detroit-bound airliner on Dec. 25, officials acknowledged. A senior Republican lawmaker said the reversal of the 2004 decision was a missed opportunity to keep him out of the country. The decision to overrule the visa denial was one of a series of events that preceded Abdulmutallab's arrest in connection with an alleged Christmas Day attempt to destroy the plane with a bomb. In January, the Obama administration released a review of the case that outlined a number of missteps but did not include any reference to the visa denial. An official said the incident was left out because the move to overturn the initial decision did not seem out of the ordinary. That official and others said that, in reversing the initial decision and granting Abdulmutallab a visa, consular officials took into account that his father was a prominent Nigerian banker with strong ties to his community. There was no derogatory information or suggestion that he had ties to Islamist terrorism. – Washington Post

Thomas Joscelyn and Bill Roggio write: John Brennan, who is President Obama’s chief counterterrorism adviser, confirmed in a Feb. 1 letter to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi that the recidivism rate for former Gitmo detainees had risen to 20 percent. This figure included both “confirmed” and “suspected” cases documented by the Pentagon in a regularly updated analysis of recidivism. Brennan argued that all of the recidivists had been transferred or released during the previous administration. “I want to underscore the fact that all of these cases relate to detainees released during the previous Administration and under the prior detainee review process,” Brennan wrote. Brennan cited “significant improvements to the detainee review process” that had been made by the Obama administration. Brennan added that the Pentagon’s updated recidivism “report indicates no confirmed or suspected recidivists among detainees transferred during this Administration, although we recognize the ongoing risk that detainees could engage in such activity.” Abdul Hafiz’s recidivism highlights that risk. He was transferred to Afghanistan just a few months ago and has already assumed a leadership position within the Taliban’s ranks once again. By some estimates, it takes an average of one and a half years for Gitmo recidivists to rejoin the fight. Hafiz returned to the fight in far less time. – Long War Journal

North Korea

North Koreans who recently fled to China say many of their fellow citizens are losing faith in the regime of Kim Jong Il after a disastrous currency revaluation that wiped out savings and left food scarcer than at any time since the famine of the mid-1990s, when as many as 2 million people died. "People are outspoken. They complain," said a 56-year-old woman from the border city of Musan who gave her name as Li Mi Hee. Lowering her voice to a whisper, she said, "My son thinks that something might happen. I don't know what, but I can tell you this: People have opinions…It is not like the 1990s when people just died without saying what they thought." Li was one of several North Korean women from different parts of the country interviewed this month near the border with China. Using pseudonyms, as many North Koreans do even outside their country to protect family members from retaliation, they told of panic in the wake of the bungled economic move, which left even a staple such as rice in the hands of black marketeers and sent the communist government scrambling to repair the damage. "The whole economic structure has collapsed because of the currency reform," said James Kim, a Korean American educator and president of the Yanbian University of Science and Technology in Yanji, China, who is in the process of setting up a similar school in Pyongyang, the North Korean capital. "It is a very difficult situation for them. . . . It might end up being worse than the 1990s." – Los Angeles Times

Defense

The Pentagon is scheduled to announce Thursday that it will relax enforcement of the "don't ask, don't tell" rules that prevent gay men and lesbians from serving openly in the military, a decision that officials described as a temporary measure until Congress can take permanent action. Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates is expected to announce that the military will no longer investigate the sexual orientation of service members based on anonymous complaints, will restrict testimony from third parties and will require high-ranking officers to review all cases, sources familiar with the changes said. Gates had asked Pentagon lawyers to review whether the Defense Department has the legal discretion to enforce the "don't ask, don't tell" law more loosely after President Obama urged its repeal in his Jan. 27 State of the Union address. – Washington Post

Turkey

Turkey's government will submit constitutional reforms that have riled the old secular elite to parliament before the end of the month, Deputy Prime Minister Cemil Cicek said on Wednesday. The government has said the reforms are designed to bring the Muslim EU candidate country in line with European standards. Critics accuse the ruling AK Party of using liberal reform as a cover for efforts to consolidate its power and promote a secret Islamist agenda. But the government lacks the two-thirds majority in parliament that it needs to amend the constitution without other parties' help, and says it will put the reforms to a referendum. But the opposition has threatened to ask the Constitutional Court to block the package…"We are searching for consensus, we will continue this, but 100 percent consensus is never possible," said Cicek, who serves as government spokesman. "Eventually it will have to go before the public." The head of the board that appoints judges and prosecutors, a key target of the reforms, said the changes could undermine the separation of powers and the independence of the judiciary. - Reuters

Announcements

On the evening of April 13, FPI and the Association for the Study of the Middle East and Africa will host a panel discussion on the situation in Sudan, and policy options for the United States. To RSVP, please visit FPI’s Events page.

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Events
FY2011 Pacific Command and US Forces-Korea DAR
House Armed Services Committee
March 25

FY 2011 Department of Energy DAR - Atomic Energy Defenses
House Armed Services Committee
Strategic Forces Subcommittee
March 25

The Importance of Legal Education to the Future of Afghanistan
Afghanistan Legal Education Project
March 25

Democracy Online: Can the Internet Bring Change?
Google DC Talks
March 25

The Middle East Economy in 2010: Exceptions Amid the Downturn
Middle East Institute
March 25

The Green Movement in Iran
Middle East Policy Forum
March 25

Negotiating with the Taliban
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
March 25

Steps to Undermine Muslim Extremism: the Saudi Angle
Heritage Foundation
March 25

Terrorist De-Radicalization Programs
Heritage Foundation
March 26

Integrating National Security Missions
Center for Strategic and International Studies
March 26

Defense Challenges and Future Opportunities
Brookings Institution
March 26

The NPR and the Future of Nuclear Weapons
Brookings Institution
March 29

The Mullah-Caudillo Axis
American Enterprise Institute
March 29

Politics, Security, and Human Rights in the North Caucasus
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
March 29

Protecting National Sovereignty in the Age of Obama
Heritage Foundation
March 30

US Military Assistance to Lebanon: The Pros and Cons
Middle East Institute
March 30

Current Realities and Future Possibilities in Burma/Myanmar
United States Institute of Peace
March 31

Towards a Successful NPT Review Conference
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
March 31

Mideast Peace: Who Leads? Who Succeeds?
United States Institute of Peace
April 1

Defense Logistics Modernization
Center for Strategic and International Studies
April 2

Previewing Sudan’s Upcoming Elections
United States Institute of Peace
April 2

The First Year of the Obama Administration’s Russia Policy
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
April 5

Building Democracy and State Institutions in Post-War Kosovo
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
April 5

PONI: US-India Dialogue
Center for Strategic and International Studies
April 6

The State of Intelligence Reform
Bipartisan Policy Center
April 6

“The Dead Hand” with David E. Hoffman
Young Professionals in Foreign Policy
April 6

Has Mexico Turned a Corner?
New America Foundation
April 7

The Legacy of President Lula and Brazil’s 2010 Presidential Race
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
April 7

2010 PONI Spring Conference
Center for Strategic and International Studies
April 8-9

Struggle for Democracy in the Middle East
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
April 12

Challenges in Building Russian Democracy
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
April 12

Getting Kosovo Out of Limbo
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
April 12

The Obama Administration and Arab-Israeli Peace
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
April 12

Sudan: On the Path to Peace or Crisis?
FPI/ASMEA
April 13

FY 2011 Naval Shipbuilding DAR
Senate Armed Services Committee
Seapower Subcommittee
April 14

Yemen on the Brink: Implications for US Security Interests
Jamestown Foundation
April 14

Establishing Political Legitimacy in Afghanistan
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
April 15

US-Georgian Relations Since August 2008
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
April 19

Mitterand, the End of the Cold War, and German Reunification
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
April 20

International Perspectives on the Nuclear Posture Review
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
April 21

US-Russian Citizen Diplomacy Past and Present
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
April 21

Contemporary Attitudes and Beliefs in Abkhazia, Moldova and Transdnestria
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
April 26

US Relations with the Muslim World: One Year After Cairo
Center for the Study of Islam and Democracy
April 28

Muslim Political Integration in the US and Germany
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
May 3