U.S. Nuclear Strategy Redefines Deterrence

Analysis: U.S. Nuclear Strategy Redefines Deterrence

By Stephen Kaufman Staff Writer

Washington - President Obama's new nuclear arms strategy aims to retain nuclear weapons to deter any primary threat of a nuclear strike on the U.S. homeland, while also furthering his ultimate goal of making them obsolete.

The strategy, contained in a 72-page report - the Nuclear Posture Review Report (NPR) - produced jointly by the Defense, State and Energy departments and the National Security Council, addresses what is believed to be the mostly likely threats in the coming decade - terrorists obtaining nuclear materials for "dirty" bombs and an increase in global nuclear proliferation spawned by additional nuclear-armed states. States acquiring nuclear capabilities would provide the more alarming dilemma of an unending proliferation cycle that would destabilize whole regions of the world.

The NPR ( http://www.defense.gov/npr/docs/2010 Nuclear Posture Review Report.pdf ) (PDF, 2.7MB) cites a reduction in the role of nuclear weapons in the overall U.S. national security strategy, and comes as the Obama administration reduces its nuclear stockpiles through the recently concluded new Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty ( http://www.america.gov/st/peacesec-english/2010/March/20100326112820dmslahrellek0.2403528.html ) (START), maintains the nearly 20-year U.S. moratorium on nuclear testing and says it will not build any additional nuclear weapons.

At the same time, it seeks to dissuade others from seeking their own nuclear arsenals by pledging not to use nuclear weapons on nations that are in compliance with the 1970 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and nuclear nonproliferation obligations. The strategy also reassures U.S. friends and allies that the American nuclear deterrent will remain only "as long as nuclear weapons exist," and will be strong enough that they will have no need to develop their own.

Coming one year after President Obama's April 5, 2009, speech ( http://www.america.gov/st/texttrans-english/2009/April/20090406115740eaifas0.9701763.html ) in which he called for concrete steps to eradicate nuclear weapons from the world, the NPR is a clear statement that while the international security environment that existed during the Cold War years has changed, "the risk of nuclear attack has increased."

During the decades-long standoff between the United States and the former Soviet Union, the concept of mutual assured destruction helped to dissuade both countries from using their nuclear arsenal, since the leaders of both countries were well aware that any nuclear strike would invite a full and debilitating retaliation. The NPR recognizes that the adversarial relationship between the United States and the Russian Federation has ended, and both countries, as well as other nuclear armed powers such as China, now face the common 21st-century threats of nuclear terrorism and unsustainable nuclear proliferation.

"Al-Qaida and their extremist allies are seeking nuclear weapons. We must assume they would use such weapons if they managed to obtain them," the report states. Along with the willingness of violent extremists to target civilians, the traditional notion of deterrence loses its effectiveness when faced with adversaries who are willing to sacrifice their own lives to inflict massive casualties, it says.

Therefore, the NPR places high importance on preventing extremists and nonstate entities from obtaining nuclear materials, equipment and technologies. The president's convening of the April 12-13 nuclear security summit ( http://www.america.gov/st/peacesec-english/2010/April/20100406143850zjsredna0.789776.html ) in Washington is focused on obtaining wide international agreement on how to secure all of the world's nuclear material within four years to prevent it from being stolen or seized.

The other principal nuclear weapons threat comes from states like North Korea and Iran, which by pursuing their own nuclear weapons programs and missile delivery capabilities in violation of international law, risk not only adding to the existing level of available weapons components and technology, but could provoke their neighbors into developing their own nuclear deterrent, and consequently even greater proliferation of nuclear weapons.

"Continued non-compliance with non-proliferation norms by these and other countries would seriously weaken the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), with adverse security implications for the United States and the international community at large," the NPR states.

While the United States pledges not to use nuclear weapons against NPT-compliant states that are meeting their obligations, the report sees a "narrow range of contingencies" in which the U.S. nuclear arsenal can help deter a conventional, chemical or biological attack from states that are not compliant.

"That does not mean that our willingness to use nuclear weapons against countries not covered by the new assurance has in any way increased. Indeed, the United States wishes to stress that it would only consider the use of nuclear weapons in extreme circumstances to defend the vital interests of the United States or its allies and partners," the NPR states.

As Vice President Biden said in an April 7 article ( http://www.america.gov/st/texttrans-english/2010/April/20100407132341eaifas0.3968099.html ), this separate approach toward states observing international nonproliferation norms versus those who are not provides additional security incentives for continued compliance, while ensuring that those in defiance "will be more isolated and less secure.

A senior Defense Department official told reporters in an April 6 background briefing ( http://www.america.gov/st/texttrans-english/2010/April/20100407120928eaifas0.1092449.html ) that the president considers the NPR "a foundational document of his administration" that reflects both his thinking and his leadership.

The NPR offers "a concrete, pragmatic work plan" for moving forward the president's agenda of a world without nuclear weapons, the official said, and is closely integrated with concurrent U.S. policy and strategy developments, such as START, the nuclear security summit and the upcoming NPT Review Conference at the United Nations in New York in May.

ENDS

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