FPI Overnight Brief: June 4, 2010

FPI Overnight Brief
June 4, 2010
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Flotilla Fallout

While still insisting that its blockade of Gaza is essential to its security, the Israeli government is now shifting its position, “exploring new ways” of allowing goods to reach the coastal enclave, an Israeli official said Thursday. – New York Times

Imam Fethullah Gülen, a controversial and reclusive U.S. resident who is considered Turkey's most influential religious leader, criticized a Turkish-led flotilla for trying to deliver aid without Israel's consent. – Wall Street Journal

A cargo ship trying to break the blockade of Gaza could reach Israel's 20-mile exclusion zone by Friday afternoon, an activist said, and Israel's prime minister has vowed the ship will not reach land. – Associated Press

FPI Executive Director Jamie Fly writes: It’s no wonder that ally after ally feels slighted by the Obama administration, because even when this White House says they are standing with you, they are simultaneously undermining you. – The Weekly Standard Blog

Charles Krauthammer writes: The whole point of this relentless international campaign is to deprive Israel of any legitimate form of self-defense. – Washington Post

Gerald Seib writes: One of the duties of a superpower is playing the role of therapist for your friends—which is precisely the task the U.S. performed this week to lower the temperature in a crisis between two crucial allies, Israel and Turkey. – Wall Street Journal

Maseh Zarif writes: Iranian officials have used the Israeli navy’s raid on a Gaza-bound flotilla to rally a flurry of rhetorical attacks against Israel. – The Enterprise

Anne Bayefsky writes: The Obama administration is pushing for an internationalized investigation of Israel's recent effort to preserve its naval blockade of Hamas-run Gaza. - Forbes

Danielle Pletka writes: [I]t is precisely the administration's unwillingness to call Turkey--a NATO ally--on the carpet for its cozying up to our enemies that fed Ankara's willingness to sponsor this Potemkin humanitarian effort. No, the White House didn't make matters worse, but it certainly helped pave the way for what occurred. – AOL News

Mona Charen writes: Under President Obama’s leadership, the United States has capitulated to terror tactics and to the despicable temptation to blame Israel…What a disgrace. – National Review Online

Brigitte Gabriel writes: The lesson here is that Islamists and jihadists have become masters of media manipulation, a task made easy by the degree of willful blindness, naiveté’, and political correctness so epidemic in the media and among world leaders. – Daily Caller

Stephen Schwartz writes: Prime Minister Erdogan is tied to Erbakan, al-Qaradawi, Ramadan, and Hamas, and Turkey now represents a major element in the global panorama of radical Islam. The response to this reality by the Obama administration, which appears to fantasize that extreme Muslim ideology is merely a product of social ills, rather than of official support in countries like Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey, no less than in Iran and Syria, is badly mistaken. – The Weekly Standard Blog

Thomas Joscelyn writes: In fact, the more one looks into the details of the flotilla the more it becomes clear that the Brotherhood used the humanitarian mission for its own purpose, namely, to assist its Palestinian branch – Hamas. – The Weekly Standard Blog

Joscelyn also writes: The IHH is not some benign humanitarian organization. And the flotilla was not some purely benign operation either. – The Weekly Standard Blog

KT McFarland writes: The next few ships to challenge the blockade will likely be filled with more children’s toys and baby formula. But once the blockade is broken, those ships will be filled with missiles, weapons and ammunition bound for Hezbollah and Hamas. – Fox Forum

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Egypt

FPI Director Robert Kagan and Michele Dunne write: This administration prides itself on its progressive approach to this post-Cold War world, but it is repeating the mistake that Cold War-era administrations made when they supported right-wing dictatorships -- right up until the point when they were toppled by radical forces. – Washington Post

Egypt's ruling National Democratic Party has won a majority of seats in the nation's upper house of Parliament, the Shura Council, in midterm elections held on Tuesday, the head of the Higher Electoral Committee announced at a news conference on Thursday. The NDP secured 60 out of the 74 council seats. Four candidates from opposition parties El Ghad, El Geel, Al Tagamuu and Al Nassery managed to outmuscle the NDP nominees and secure the only opposition victories. The biggest loser was Egypt's largest opposition group, the Muslim Brotherhood, whose 15 nominees failed to win a single seat despite the fact that their movement forms the largest opposition bloc in Egypt's more influential People's Assembly, with 88 seats. – Baghdad and Beyond
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The War

Beneath its commitment to soft-spoken diplomacy and beyond the combat zones of Afghanistan and Iraq, the Obama administration has significantly expanded a largely secret U.S. war against al-Qaeda and other radical groups, according to senior military and administration officials. – Washington Post

An Australian woman who converted to Islam and moved to Yemen to raise her children in a Muslim society is being held in prison in Sana'a in connection with alleged al-Qaida activity. – Guardian

Samuel Issacharoff writes: Two things distinguish the irregular wars in Iraq and Afghanistan: It is not clear who is a combatant, and the United States is fighting a conflict with no clear battlefront. That leaves us with the vexing question of how to handle detentions in this particular form of warfare… Under these circumstances, we must fashion procedures to do two things: There must be a legal mechanism to determine the propriety of detention based on a correct identification of an individual's status as a combatant. And there must be a new process to determine the need for continued detention, reflecting both the fact that it is intolerable to hold individuals forever and that it is equally irresponsible simply to release individuals to resume terrorist activities. – Los Angeles Times

Paul Cruickshank writes: The killing of Mustafa Abu al-Yazid, the Egyptian head of al Qaeda's operations in Afghanistan, in a drone strike in North Waziristan last month is undoubtedly a body blow to the terrorist organization. But, more importantly, his death might signal an end to the close ties between al Qaeda and the Afghan Taliban -- for it was Yazid, more than any other figure, who was the linchpin of the special relationship between the two groups. – Foreign Policy
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China

Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates accused China's military on Thursday of impeding relations with the Pentagon, taking exception to its unwillingness to invite him to Beijing during his trip to Asia this week. Gates told reporters that there is a clear split between China's political leaders, who he said want a stronger military connection with Washington, and the People's Liberation Army, which he said does not. – Washington Post

In a lecture he gave to a group of journalism students last month, a top official at Xinhua, the state news agency, said that the [country’s first] mission [into space] was not so picture-perfect. The official, Xia Lin, described how a design flaw had exposed the astronaut to excessive G-force pressure during re-entry, splitting his lip and drenching his face in blood. Startled but undaunted by Mr. Yang’s appearance, the workers quickly mopped up the blood, strapped him back in his seat and shut the door. Then, with the cameras rolling, the cabin door swung open again, revealing an unblemished moment of triumph for all the world to see. The content of Mr. Xia’s speech, transcribed and posted online by someone who attended the May 15 lecture at Tianjin Foreign Studies University, has become something of a sensation in recent days, providing the Chinese a rare insight into how their news is stage-managed for mass consumption. – New York Times

Josh Rogin reports: Beijing's refusal to accept Defense Secretary Robert Gates's offer to visit China this week has exposed divisions inside the Chinese Communist Party structure and is also causing Washington to take a hard look at what's now seen as an overly optimistic view of the current state of the relationship – Foreign Policy
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Japan

The Democratic Party of Japan overwhelmingly elected [Naoto] Kan, the country's finance minister, as its leader on Friday morning. Because the DPJ holds a majority in parliament, the vote all but secured Kan's position as the next prime minister. He will formally take the position after the parliament votes later Friday. – Washington Post

There is hope therefore that things are beginning to get so bad that reform really will appear relatively soon. But the main impression at the moment is of drift. The sad fact is that the world’s second biggest economy, home to companies that have changed industries around the world, is being kept out of dire trouble only by the loyalty of its own savers. - Economist

Abraham Denmark and Daniel Klimnan write: Tough as the coming months may be, Hatoyama's and Ozawa's departures herald the end of the beginning in Japan's political transformation. In fact, these resignations are a sign that the change heralded by the DPJ's rise to power is continuing. It was the failure to live up to the DPJ's promises that caused Hatoyama to resign -- not the DPJ's reform agenda itself. – Foreign Policy

Michael Auslin writes: [Some] think that the DPJ will now have a chance to reinvent and purify itself, purging those with financial scandals. That’s highly unlikely, to say the least, given the pervasive role of money and influence in Japanese politics. Far more likely is that Japanese voters will punish the DPJ for trashing their hopes and failing to bring about the change it promised. Second acts are possible, but the party would have to find a true standard-bearer and, right now, no one is in sight. That means more months and years of instability and uncertainty in Japan, an outcome that few outside Beijing (and maybe not even there) will welcome. – The Enterprise
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Koreas

South Korean President Lee Myung-bak, in a speech at a security conference in Singapore, on Friday will urge Pyongyang to give up nuclear weapons and encourage other countries not to accept North Korea as a nuclear state…In his speech in Singapore, Mr. Lee will "stress the graveness" of the ship sinking and connect it to North Korea's broader strategy of becoming a nuclear state, according to a statement released by his office Thursday. He will also ask other countries to encourage North Korean leaders to give up their thinking that they can achieve "a strong and prosperous nation" through the possession of nuclear weapons. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

Even as the United States tries to ratchet up sanctions against North Korea for its March 26 sinking of a South Korean warship, the United Nations is preparing to spend more than $170 million on new programs in the xenophobic communist state. More surprisingly, it is doing so with the knowledge and cooperation of the U.S. State Department. – Fox News

A North Korean diplomat said Thursday that tensions on the Korean peninsula were running so high over the sinking of a South Korean warship that "war may break out at any moment." - AFP

Sue Lloyd-Roberts reports: People in the North tell you that they long for the two countries to be united again. "It has been 60 years since the country was divided by the civil war. Unification is our dream", a university student in Pyongyang told me. "It must happen one day". A bit like the attitude of West Germans towards East Germans prior to unification, the South Koreans are not too keen of the thought of 23 million hungry and badly educated cousins pouring across the border. – BBC Newsnight

Watch Lloyd-Roberts’ reports for BBC Newsnight here.

Douglas Paal writes: North Korea and its leaders are desperately in need of money to survive. Washington and the civilized world should cooperate in gradually tightening their grip around the banks used internationally by Pyongyang. By adjusting the grip to the scale of the North’s provocations, they can send a useful message to Kim Jung-il that he is no longer in the peninsula’s driver’s seat. – The National Interest
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Afghanistan/Pakistan

Nine years into a grinding war, a "degraded" Taliban is conducting fewer direct assaults in eastern Afghanistan, turning instead to more roadside bombs and suicide attacks, the U.S. commander there said June 3. - AFP

The federal government may have been point-scoring but its central claim rings true: Pakistan can no longer afford to limit its fight against extremists to the north-west. They are embedded in Punjab and links between them and groups in the tribal areas are erasing the distinctions between militant groups the state is willing to tolerate and those which it is fighting. – Economist

Lisa Curtis writes: The success of the Kandahar initiative will hinge on the coalition's ability to quickly deliver security, development assistance and good governance to the people. If the U.S. focuses on these objectives, there is a good chance this summer's push will spell the beginning of the end for the Taliban. - McClatchy
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Middle East

The remnants of the U.S. occupation of Iraq are being sold to the highest bidders in yard sales across the country. The outskirts of cities like Baghdad, Fallujah and Ramadi -- once bastions of the Sunni insurgency -- are now destinations for bargain hunters interested in items such as generators and trailers. As the U.S. military draws down to 50,000 troops by the end of the summer, the junk left behind is quickly becoming part of the Iraqi landscape. – Washington Post

The Obama administration is quietly lobbying Congress to restore $1 billion needed for funding U.S. military training of Iraqi security forces that was cut by Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Sen. Carl Levin during a closed-door hearing last week. – Washington Times

A controversial reality television show aimed at chronicling the lives of young Saudis clamoring for change has predictably riled authorities in the conservative kingdom and led to lawsuits against those who participated. – Baghdad and Beyond

R. James Woolsey writes: There still may be a chance for the U.S. and at least a few of its allies to do something effective: to impose on Iran crippling economic sanctions orders of magnitude more severe than the modest ones used to date, to provide substantial and effective aid to the Iranian reformers, or otherwise to help bring about a tectonic shift in the nature of the Iranian regime. We may still have an opportunity to keep “engagement” from becoming the “appeasement” of our time, a synonym for “weakness leading to war.” The key determinant is whether our leaders decide to use Chamberlain or Churchill as their model of statesmanship. Much will hinge on their choice. – National Review Online

Karim Sadjadpour writes: Governmental brutality and intimidation can withstand the march of history for years, but not indefinitely. Whatever becomes of the Green Movement in the short term, millions of courageous Iranian protestors made clear to the world last summer that their country’s centennial quest for a democracy is an idea whose time has come. – Daily Star
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Defense

The U.S. government is seeing "hints" that adversaries are targeting military networks for "remote" sabotage, the head of the Pentagon's recently launched Cyber Command said in his first public remarks since being confirmed last month. – Washington Post

A foreign computer intrusion two years ago reached classified Pentagon computer networks, prompting a reorganization of offensive and defensive cyberwarfare efforts, the commander of the new U.S. Cyber Command said Thursday. – Washington Times

The U.S. military operates 7 million computers and 15,000 computer networks and has virtually "no situational awareness" that would enable it to know when a cyber attack is underway, the new head of the U.S. Cyber Command said June 3. The lack of "real-time situational awareness" puts the military at risk, said Gen. Keith Alexander, who heads the command and is director of the National Security Agency. – Defense News

FPI Policy Advisor John Noonan writes: Studies that simply compare the U.S. defense budget with the budgets of peer competitors make a poor case for slashing military defending. They don't factor in America's unique responsibility to world security and stability, nor to the factor in the nature and consistency of adversaries and allies alike. As Europe disarms and new potential competitors rise, the strategic demands shouldered by our military have grown exponentially since the end of the Cold War. We should fund our forces appropriately. – The Weekly Standard Blog

Mackenzie Eaglen writes: Naval-modernization cuts could increase the likelihood that U.S. military capabilities will fall short of the nation’s wide-ranging security commitments. Current budget plans indicate the United States may relinquish its military superpower status, not to another nation per se, but by reverting to a position where the country lacks the capacity to engage and maintain a forward presence globally. Less military investment might save money in the budget today, but it’s a change we can’t afford in the years ahead. – The Foundry
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Nuclear Weapons

Baker Spring writes: On May 28, the Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) Review Conference at the United Nations concluded with the adoption of a Final Document that ostensibly reaffirms the importance of the NPT. Unfortunately, the Final Document is unfocused and actually undermines the NPT—thereby weakening the broader nuclear nonproliferation regime. – Heritage Foundation
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Burma

US Senator Jim Webb has cancelled a visit to Burma because of concern the government might be working with North Korea to develop a nuclear programme. Citing reports containing "new allegations" of possible co-operation, Mr Webb said it would be "unwise" for him to visit Burma for now. – BBC News
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Turkey

It was a day of mourning for Turkey on Thursday, as a crowd of several thousand people streamed down a central boulevard here, bearing eight coffins draped in Turkish and Palestinian flags, one of them carrying an American citizen. – New York Times

The Islamic charity that was a key organizer of a flotilla intercepted by Israeli commandos this week claimed martyrdom and victory Thursday, in scenes that appeared to set it apart from other aid groups – Wall Street Journal

Mario Loyola writes: The U.S. has a vital interest in maintaining the regional stability that is indispensable for the preservation of peace and for any prospect of a two-state solution. Sanctioning an attempt to forcibly breach the Israeli siege of Gaza is among the most destabilizing and dangerous things that Turkey could have done.- National Review Online

Michael Rubin writes: Turkey in 2010 is not the same Turkey as a decade ago. Gone is the pro-Western and diplomatically responsible foreign partner familiar to those engaged in the Arab-Israeli peace process. In its place is a regime whose public rhetoric increasingly resembles that of the most hardline Arab states. – Jewish Daily Forward
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Obama Administration

The director of national intelligence should be recognized as the undisputed chief of the intelligence community but has been sidetracked by bitter disputes over his authority and other distractions from his core mission, according to a report a blue-ribbon panel submitted to President Barack Obama last month. - Politico

Josh Rogin reports: As the Obama administration nears completion of two major reviews on development policy, several top positions in the U.S. Agency for International Development remain vacant. Development sources tell us that names for several senior USAID positions have been sent all the way up to the White House, but the White House has yet to act on them – The Cable

Cliff May writes: Administration officials and loyalists have been trying to put the best possible face on the congressionally mandated 52-page document. But anyone who glances at so much as a page will see that it is rife with platitudes, wishful thinking, and self-delusion. It requires a bit more effort to see how unserious and self-contradictory it is. But let me give that a go. – National Review Online

May also writes: Strengthening America must become a priority. That is not the case at present as anyone who takes the trouble to read the Obama administration’s new 52-page National Security Strategy (NSS) will learn – The Foundry
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Australia

If, as expected, President Obama cancels his planned trip to Australia later this month, Australians will have their explanation ready. And no, it’s not the oil spill. At least one newspaper is already preparing to blame the cancellation directly on Kevin Rudd, the Prime Minister – Times of London
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Israel

Defiance has been a signature of Netanyahu's career, and despite the expectations of some commentators that he would be more conciliatory during his second go-round as prime minister, that has not been the case over the 14 months since he returned to power. Even when it has meant publicly feuding with the Obama administration, Netanyahu has seemed to embrace the fight -- a strategy that thus far has paid off for him politically. – Washington Post

Col. Richard Kempe, CBE writes: The business of fighting in urban areas is tough, partly because of the need to minimize civilian casualties. It is a sad fact that significant numbers of civilian casualties will continue to occur as long as groups like Hamas use the civilian population as a defensive shield. The Goldstone report, however well intentioned, only serves to validate the strategy of these groups. Make no mistake. Hamas and others like it will have read Judge Goldstone’s report. They will weigh its judgments and realize that, far from being viewed by the world as cowardly and murderous, the practice of hiding behind women and children and maximizing civilian casualties is very much in their interest. – Journal of International Security Affairs
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Europe

Chancellor Angela Merkel suffered a setback Thursday when her preferred candidate to be Germany’s next president, Labor Minister Ursula von der Leyen, lost the race after a leading conservative premier, Christian Wulff, was chosen by regional party leaders. – New York Times

The soap opera that was Ukrainian politics after the Orange revolution is over. The new genre is yet to be defined, but its sombre protagonists would fit better in a noir drama than in a burlesque. There is a change of atmosphere in Kiev: a little less freedom, a bit more intimidation. But although some of the signs are ominous, disaster has not yet struck. – Economist

In the past few weeks American and European officials have been strident: Kosovo should not be partitioned. Who said it should be? No senior Serbian or Kosovo-Albanian official has suggested redrawing the borders. Privately, however, it is a different matter. And that is why diplomats are nervous. – Economist
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South Africa

Can the “miracle” nation, which won plaudits around the world for its peaceful transition to democracy after centuries of white-supremacist rule, conquer the bitter divisions of its past to turn itself into the “rainbow nation” of Nelson Mandela’s dreams? Or will it become ever more mired in bad governance, racial tension, poverty, corruption, violence and decay to turn into yet another African failed state? - Economist
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Columbia
For Mr Santos the presidency is tantalisingly close, but it is not yet won. Perhaps the biggest threat he faces in the run-off is a low turnout, in a country where voting is voluntary. Only 49% of the electorate voted on May 30th. But he has done most of the hard work of persuading Colombians to stay the course that Mr Uribe set. – Economist

Roger Noriega writes: This past Sunday, Colombian voters defied predictions and opted by a wide margin for the hand-picked successor of President Alvaro Uribe, a stalwart U.S. ally. When Secretary of State Hillary Clinton visits Colombia next Wednesday, she can show that we value this relationship by pledging to press for ratification of a bilateral trade agreement that has been languishing in the Congress for over three years. - Forbes
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The Hague

Since the days after World War II when people accused as Nazi criminals awaited their fates in the grimness of Nuremberg Prison, reformers have dramatically reshaped the standards under which suspects accused of the vilest war crimes are being held. – New York Times

ENDS

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