May 7 Ecuadorian Referendum Fast Approaches

Council on Hemispheric Affairs Research Memorandum
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Press Release: May 7 Ecuadorian Referendum Fast Approaches
New vote will prove if President Correa still packs political power and whether Ecuador's fragile political stability can be maintained

• Arrogance and sclerotic personality needlessly costs Correa popular backing
• He could be a more effective coalition builder
• Breakdown of alliance with indigenous has cost him political capital
• Ecuador’s divisiveness has surprisingly not hurt the country’s leader with major defections—Correa is still likely to win the referendum
Once again, Ecuador finds itself deeply divided leading up to the country’s sixth popular referendum scheduled for Saturday, May 7. The current campaign exemplifies the ideological fragmentation currently afflicting Ecuador, pitting the country’s President Rafael Correa against an array of groups with varying political profiles. Wide-ranging opposition exists against a pro-vote among the indigenous population, labor unions, environmental organizations, mass media, university students, Catholic clergy, the upper and upper-middle classes, and political parties like the Partido Social Cristiano, Izquierda Democrática, Sociedad Patrótica and Movimiento Popular Democrático. Distaste for Correa and the looming referendum have risen to an alarming degree as he subjects the electorate to policy initiatives that are perceived as relatively trivial concerns, while ignoring what appear to be far more looming problems.
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This analysis was prepared by COHA Research Fellow Olga Imbaquingo and COHA Research Associate Christina Sabato
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