Are Greece And Turkey Going To War?

Tensions are rising between Turkey and Greece, but this strife is not new. It’s the continuation of an ongoing dispute, claims of historical atrocities, and arguments over energy rights. At the moment, both Turkey and Greece are ramping up their military presence, with Greece conducting naval exercises while Turkish warships shadow a seismic vessel surveying the area for gas-rich reserves.

If one were only too quickly peruse the surface of this conflict, it could be easy to assume this is simply a matter of energy reserves, but that misses some very critical points. The two Mediterranean nations have had an ongoing dispute over international maritime territories.

Greece claims that international law provides territory out from each of its islands. It has thousands of islands, which, if accurate, would expand its territorial protection far out into the Mediterranean.

Turkey claims that this is an inaccurate interpretation of international law and that its drilling rights are being infringed upon. Yet, some of the most recent hostilities stretch back decades. In 1974, Turkey invaded Cyprus following a military coup backed by Greece. Many Greeks fled the island over the next decade, and in 1983, a Turkish-Cypriot politician claimed the island as the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC). While this was only recognized by Turkey, tensions between the two countries have grown ever since.

In the mid-1990s, Greece and Turkey almost went to war over two uninhabited islands near the western coast of Turkey. At the moment, Greece considers gas exploration by Turkey in the area to be illegal, but Turkey claims that any deals involving Cyprus must include the TRNC. While energy is a major catalyst for the current tensions, it certainly isn’t the only reason. Migration is also a major problem for Turkey, something that has caused strife between the EU and Turkey.

Turkey is housing almost 4 million migrants and refugees, all part of a deal made with the European Union in 2016. Allowing these migrants and refugees to flood across Turkey’s border with Greece has the potential to cause serious challenges — both economic and political — for Greece, and Turkey’s President Erdogan made good on a previous threat to temporarily “open the gates” and allow tens of thousands of these refugees to pour over the border into Greece.

At the time, Greece handled the situation with force, carrying out violence against the refugees, and subsequently being reprimanded from human rights groups for their actions. At the time, the European Union accused Turkey of using these asylum-seekers as a political tool.

The tensions and hostilities between Greece and Turkey also increased this past July when Turkey decided to convert Istanbul’s Hagia Sophia into a mosque. This is a very important building for Orthodox Christianity and it not only irritated Greek Orthodox Christians, but it also drew the ire of Russia.

Nikos Dendias, Greece’s foreign minister, recently accused Erdogan of attempting to use what is referred to as a neo-Ottoman expansionist strategy, imposing its will on allies and neighbors to spread its geographical reach in the area. However, Turkey’s effort to survey gas exploration in the Mediterranean has received support from both sides of the political spectrum.

With regard to energy exploration and resources, Turkey has been finding itself more isolated due to limited options with regard to oil and gas exploration. This has brought some sympathy its way and international support as well as social backing.

In fact, according to Middle East security expert Emile Hokayem of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, “Erdogan’s adventure into the Eastern Mediterranean probably has more support than any of his other regional adventures.”

In November 2019, Turkey signed an agreement with Libya’s U.N. -backed government, which would allow Turkey to begin drilling in the Eastern Mediterranean. Even though this has not been acknowledged or recognized by the United States or the European Union, this opened another avenue for Turkey as it began intervening in Libya’s civil conflict, fighting against Khalifa Haftar.

This has brought Turkey in as a power broker in Libya. On the other side, Egypt signed an agreement with Greece back in August on a joint maritime economic zone. Turkey claims that this agreement does not hold up in international legal circles.

As both Greece and Turkey boost their military presence, this is creating an increasingly tense environment throughout the eastern Mediterranean. On top of all this, Russia recently signed a contract with Turkey to send a second batch of S-400 air defense systems to the European nation.

This has the very real potential to create instability throughout the region and threaten peace. Turkey is clearly attempting to expand its presence and influence throughout the region, and completely ignores essential European values and internationally established boundaries.

NATO is also becoming fractured over this topic, with some NATO allies supporting Turkey while others are backing Greece’s claims. This has the very real and dangerous potential of destabilizing NATO.

By purchasing a second batch of air defense systems from Russia, this catapults the conflict deeper into disarray. Turkey’s aggressiveness must not be taken lightly. If it is willing to go this far and push its influence illegally into Grecian territory, how far will it go elsewhere?

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