New World Bank Research Outlines Adaptation Pathways For Pacific Atoll Countries

SYDNEY, November 14, 2024 — Climate change is endangering ecosystems, economies, and livelihoods in Kiribati, the Marshall Islands, and Tuvalu, in which the highest points are only about three meters above sea level. The World Bank’s Pacific Atoll Countries Climate and Development Report (CCDR) emphasises the urgent need for more adaptation measures, financing, and investments in human capital including local jobs and training in these countries. The report identifies key vulnerabilities, presents a series of options within a range of adaptation pathways and estimates the costs required for addressing these critical challenges.

The roughly 200,000 people who live in the three countries are highly vulnerable to rising seas, warming oceans, and climate-related events that threaten water access, food security, and economic stability. Projected sea level rises of up to 0.5 meters by 2070-2110 could submerge 50-80 percent of major urban areas in these countries. Average annual losses from such events are already equivalent to seven percent of economic output in Tuvalu and 3-4 percent of output in Marshall Islands and Kiribati and are projected to increase. Without urgent global and local action, a one in 20-year climate event in Tuvalu could lead to damage and losses equivalent to 50 percent of current annual output by 2050.

The Pacific Atoll CCDR explores these unique challenges and highlights the need for increased adaptation measures alongside investments in building human capital to strengthen communities and support mobility in the future. Although the atoll countries have started implementing adaptation plans and advocate globally for emissions reductions, additional measures will be essential to navigate a rapidly changing environment.

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The report outlines three response strategies: protect, accommodate, and retreat— each tailored to the landscape and population needs. Physical protection and accommodation options (i.e., hard infrastructure such as sea walls and land raising) is most suited to urban areas with high population densities. In the less populated outer islands nature-based solutions such as vegetation barriers and setback zones are identified as more cost-effective options that support ongoing ecological and landform adaptation to sea-level rise, within certain limits.

“Few countries face existential threats as severe as the Pacific atoll countries,” said Manuela V. Ferro, World Bank Vice President for East Asia and the Pacific. “Adapting to climate change will require significant investments in resilient infrastructure and building up skills.”

The CCDR outlines five policy actions for Pacific atoll governments to strengthen long-term resilience: (a) building consensus for inclusive adaptation pathways, ensuring ownership of decisions, balancing interests, and preserving traditions and cultural identity; (b) investing in human capital and supporting mobility, to boost development, job creation and climate resilience; (c) enhancing land administration and sustainable construction, to balance cultural land tenure with public works; (d) protecting freshwater resources, fisheries, coral reefs and ecosystems, to sustain island habitability; ensuring food security, and maintaining the natural resilience of the islands, and (e) enhancing governance and prudent spending mechanisms critical to the increased financing needs required to meet countries’ goals in human development and climate adaptation.

Despite substantial financing, Pacific atoll countries still face a significant climate funding gap. Adaptation costs (in present value terms) for Tuvalu alone are approximately US$ 1 billion for a 0.5m sea-level rise by 2070-2100, which reflects around 20 years of current GDP.

The CCDR calls for increased concessional financing from international development partners to address funding gaps and better align donor funding with national priorities. It identifies and recommends prioritising investments with long-term benefits in education, health, and governance, which will serve these countries regardless of future climate scenarios.

CCDRs are diagnostic reports that integrate climate change and development considerations. Based on data and research, they suggest concrete actions countries can take to mitigate and adapt to climate change. The World Bank has completed over 45 CCDRs around the world as of October 2024.

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