CLIs Continue To Expand Steadily

The OECD Composite leading indicators (CLIs), designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend, continue to expand steadily in the OECD area as a whole and in some large emerging-market economies.

Among major OECD economies, the CLIs remain above trend and continue to expand at a steady pace in the United States, Japan and Canada as well as in the euro area as a whole, including Germany and Italy. The CLI for the United Kingdom is still expanding and has now reached above trend levels. In France, the CLI continues to grow steadily but remains below trend.

Among major emerging-market economies, the CLIs for Russia and China (industrial sector) point to steady increase. In India, the CLI now indicates stable growth whereas it continues to signal slowing growth in Brazil.

Despite the gradual lifting of COVID-19 containment measures in some countries and the progress of vaccination campaigns, persisting uncertainties might result in higher than usual fluctuations in the CLI and its components. As such, the CLIs should be interpreted with care and their magnitude should be regarded as an indication of the strength of the signal rather than as a measure of the degree of growth in economic activity.

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The above graphs show country specific composite leading indicators. Turning points of CLIs (marked by shaded triangles) tend to precede turning points in economic activity relative to trend by six to nine months. The horizontal line at 100 represents the trend of economic activity.

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