Delayed Vaccination Timelines Will Cost The Global Economy US$2.3trn

New report by The Economist Intelligence Unit (The EIU) outlines economic, political, and geopolitical consequences of vaccine inequity.

• A model built by The Economist Intelligence Unit shows that those countries that will not have vaccinated 60% of their population by mid-2022 will register GDP losses totalling US$2.3trn in 2022-25.
• Emerging countries will shoulder around two-thirds of these losses, further delaying their economic convergence towards advanced economies and fuelling poverty.
• Vaccine inequity will have long-term consequences. The EIU’s forecasts show that the timelines for the economic recovery will be longer in poorer economies, compared to advanced ones.
• Delayed vaccination timelines will also fuel resentment, increasing the risk of social unrest in developing economies. This situation also paves the way for increased vaccine diplomacy from China and Russia.
• Russia’s vaccine diplomacy has failed. By contrast, China’s vaccine diplomacy operation is a success. However, it comes with risks for recipient countries, as the efficacy of some Chinese vaccines appears lower than that of Western jabs.
• At any rate, the emergence of the Delta variant means that vaccination may not prove to be the magic bullet that many governments hoped for. Political leaders need to rethink their Covid strategy to adapt it for the long term.

Agathe Demarais, The EIU’s global forecasting director and author of the report, says:

“In absolute terms, Asia will be the continent most affected by delayed vaccination timelines (with cumulative losses of US$1.7bn). As a share of GDP, countries in sub-Saharan Africa register the highest losses (totalling 3% of the region’s forecast GDP in 2022-25).”

Ms Demarais adds that “There is little chance that the divide over access to vaccines will ever be bridged. COVAX, the WHO-sponsored initiative to ship vaccines to emerging economies, has failed to live up to (modest) expectations. Despite flattering press releases, donations from rich countries also cover only a fraction of the needs. Finally, the focus in developed economies is shifting towards administering booster doses of coronavirus vaccines, which will compound shortages of raw materials and production bottlenecks.”

Finally, Ms Demarais mentions that “Over the past year, political leaders have been busy responding to short-term emergencies while the pandemic was raging. They now need to design a longer-term strategy to tackle the coronavirus, as living with Covid will become the new normal. Here again, the rich-poor divide will be stark: vaccinated, richer states will have a choice, while unvaccinated, poorer ones will not.”

GRAPHIC SUMMARY OF FORECAST COST OF DELAYED VACCINATION TIMELINES:

UPDATED MAP OF GLOBAL VACCINATION TIMELINES:

Methodology:

This map depicts the latest forecasts from The EIU for the rollout of coronavirus vaccines, reflecting the time when countries may expect to have vaccinated the majority (60-70%) of their adult population. Criteria taken into account include supply deals, production constraints, vaccine hesitancy, the size of the population, and the availability of healthcare workers. The data are also adjusted by analysts to reflect specific conditions on the ground.

UPDATED MAP OF RUSSIA AND CHINA’S VACCINE DIPLOMACY:

© Scoop Media