"No Coup Again" If You Vote For Coup Maker

BANGKOK, Thailand -- Coup-maker Prayuth Chan-ocha hopes his snappy new promise -- "no coup again" -- will get him re-elected prime minister in May and end worries that the U.S.-trained military will topple the next government if the polls go against them.

Prime Minister Prayuth dissolved Parliament's elected half, the 500-seat house of representatives, on March 20, three days before its four-year tenure expired.

The Election Commission then had to choose an election date within 45-60 days, and selected May 14.

Parliament's 250 junta-appointed senators remain unchanged.

"There should be no coup again," the now-Caretaker Prime Minister Prayuth recently told reporters.

"If any serious conflict occurs again [after the election], I don't know how to solve it because I have nothing to do with it now."

Coups, cannabis, and corruption are the biggest issues nationwide facing candidates for prime minister and parliament.

Some analysts wonder if the military will launch a coup if the next government does not satisfy them and their cronies among the elite's conservatives and old money.

Military putsches ousted more than a dozen governments since World War II.

Mr. Prayuth seized power in 2014, when he was army commander-in-chief, by inviting the elected civilian government's ministers for a chat inside an army camp in Bangkok.

He locked them in a room, declared himself Thailand's new leader, and granted himself and collaborators legal immunity.

Today, however, several analysts predict Mr. Prayuth and his newly created United Thai Nation party may be election losers, especially because he can legally remain prime minister for only two more years -- until 2025.

That twist is because after his 2014 coup, Mr. Prayuth staged nationwide parliamentary polls and was elected prime minister in 2019.

But Mr. Prayuth's 2014 junta had already presided over a new constitution in 2017 while he was coup-installed prime minister.

In 2022, when election fever began, the Constitutional Court chose 2017 as the start of his possible eight-year elected prime ministry, capping him at 2025.

All other parliamentarians are competing for four-year terms, limited to eight years.

The most popular prediction for another putsch imagines the military once again crushing the establishment's lurking nemesis -- the Dubai-based convicted fugitive billionaire, former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra -- and his supporters.

The military fears Mr. Thaksin's dynastic, anti-coup opposition Pheu Thai (For Thais) party will win big at the polls, lead a coalition government, grant him immunity from a two-year prison sentence for real estate corruption, and bring him home.

"Pheu Thai is now seeking a popular mandate...to get rid of the Prayuth regime, and form a Pheu Thai government," the party's leader Cholnan Srikaew said on March 9 at the party's meeting.

Mr. Prayuth participated in the 2006 coup which toppled Mr. Thaksin's elected government.

Mr. Prayuth led the 2014 putsch which ousted the elected administration of Mr. Thaksin's sister, then-prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra.

Ms. Yingluck is also a fugitive living abroad, including in England, dodging a corruption conviction.

Nevertheless, the Shinawatra family's political party is expected to score the biggest chunk of seats in parliament.

"The Pheu Thai party will certainly gain the most seats in the upcoming election," said Phongthep Thepkanjana, who served in several minister-level posts in Ms. Yingluck's government before it was ousted in the 2014 coup.

Mr. Thaksin's youngest child, Paethongtan, 36, is helping to lead Pheu Thai.

If Ms. Paethongtan becomes prime minister, she is expected to grant her father and aunt amnesty and bring them home without imprisonment.

The military nervously perceives Mr. Thaksin and other anti-coup candidates as a threat -- especially to its advantageous power to promote its officers without civilian control.

Army Chief Gen. Narongphan Jitkaewtae retires at the end of September, and his successor is said to be lined up.

Disruption in their heirarchy could cause their distress.

Prime Minister Prayuth is also being challenged in the election by his comrade-in-coups Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwon.

Retired army gen. Prawit, 77, displays himself as a breakaway candidate who pleases his military clique.

He boasts of experiencing an anti-coup revelation on March 8 -- nine years after the 2014 junta which he later joined.

"I'm beginning to grasp that it was wrong to think that people are unable to elect good and capable representatives to office," Mr. Prawit confessed on Facebook.

"The politicians, whom the elite look down on, actually understand the problems.

"These politicians are more reliable when people call for their help, than other groups in the power structure.

"Please believe in me for once."

If Mr. Thaksin's family party cannot command a coalition, "Pheu Thai and its allies may have to decide whether to allow Prayuth to continue being the caretaker government, or form a new government with Prawit," Mr. Phongthep said in an interview.

"Prawit’s strongest points are his wide connections, support from some members of parliament and some senators, and his being more friendly and easygoing than Prayuth," Mr. Phongthep said.

"Many senators secretly support him [Prawit], if his party has the chance to form a government," said Wanwichit Boonprong, a Rangsit University political science lecturer and news commentator.

Other contenders are the youth-focused, anti-coup Move Forward Party and a mix of smaller pro-and-anti-putsch parties.

If the opposition fragments, and the military keeps control over appointing parliament's senate, a coup could be unnecessary, because the military's block of votes may enable them to continue dominating Thailand's political system.

Voters are can choose parliament's 500 house representatives but not parliament's 250 senators.

The 750 parliament members cobble together a majority coalition and choose this Southeast Asian country's next leader -- or else Mr. Prayuth stays as caretaker.

A prime minister needs support from at least 376 parliamentarians.

Inspired by her authoritarian father, Ms. Paethongtan vows to unleash a fresh war on drugs, especially against recently legalized cannabis and illicit recreational substances.

"Narcotics run rampant and cannabis is easily available," she complained while campaigning.

Mr. Thaksin's bloody "nationwide anti-drug operations" in 2003 left more than 2,500 people shot dead in mysterious circumstances never investigated, according to Thai and international human rights groups.

"The [Thaksin] government appears to condone what looks like the most widespread and sustained mass killing by law enforcement officials in recent history," said an open letter to then-prime minister Thaksin, signed by the deans of Thailand's three most prestigious law schools.

Police and officials blamed nearly all deaths on shoot-outs among criminals.

Ms. Paethongtan's anti-cannabis crusade conveniently rips one of her closest rivals, aggressive Health Minister Anutin Charnvirakul who enthusiastically enabled marijuana to be legalized last year.

Mr. Anutin is a wealthy industrialist and politician leading Bhum Jai Thai (BJT, Proud to be Thai), the coalition's second-biggest party.

His BJT is riding high in this mostly agricultural society, thanks to many who believe Mr. Anutin's predictions that they can profit more from the weed industry than rice production.

Mr. Prayuth's government primly pushes cannabis only for medical purposes, but plenty of recreational marijuana smoke billows among Thais and foreigners.

Thousands of venues in Bangkok and across Thailand include hip niche, mom-and-pop, and slick multi-story shops financed by Thai and foreign "green rush" investors.

They sell top quality hybrids, imported and local, to anyone aged 20 or more and not pregnant.

At hundreds of additional government-run clinics, medical staff examine patients and prescribe officially-sanctioned doses of cannabis, usually as a made-in-Thailand oil.

"It is expected that in the next election, the Bhum Jai Thai party will have the highest seat [total] among the conservative political parties, and will be second only to the Pheu Thai party," Mr. Wanwichit said.

Mr. Anutin indicated if he is not elected prime minister, he will join any coalition that ensures marijuana remains relatively unrestricted except for minors.

For example, Mr. Prawit's "close acquaintance" with Mr. Thaksin, and "deep close relationship" with Mr. Anutin, could enable Mr. Prawit to become prime minister if they unite, Mr. Wanwichit said.

Whoever wins, Bangkok's sometimes see-saw relations with Washington and Beijing could achieve calmer balance.

"I think the United States should be satisfied with Prayuth, Prawit, Anutin, and Paethongtan because the leaders of these four political parties have the idea of maintaining good relations with the United States, as well as policy relations with China," Mr. Wanwichit said.

Each year, Thai media nicknames government officials, and at the end of 2022 included Mr. Prayuth's eight years in power by dubbing him: "Eight Stains."

During 2020, security forces clashed with thousands of anti-coup protestors in the streets, but Mr. Prayuth weathered student-led demands that he resign.

COVID devastated Thailand's tourist-dependent economy, but Bangkok's modern medical system eventually scored impressive achievements treating patients.

***

Richard S. Ehrlich is a Bangkok-based American foreign correspondent reporting from Asia since 1978. Excerpts from his two new nonfiction books, "Rituals. Killers. Wars. & Sex. -- Tibet, India, Nepal, Laos, Vietnam, Afghanistan, Sri Lanka & New York" and "Apocalyptic Tribes, Smugglers & Freaks" are available at
https://asia-correspondent.tumblr.com

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