Senior Panelists: Economic Interdependence Tempers Regional Disputes In Southeast Asia

HONOLULU (July 11, 2024) — Despite the most recent skirmishes in a decades-long string of territorial disputes and maritime clashes between China and some of its neighboring countries, there will likely always be some level of economic interdependence that encourages cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region, experts said in a panel discussion at the 2024 East-West Center International Media Conference held in Manila late last month.

In light of the recent headlines about active territorial friction between the Philippines and China amid a backdrop of mounting China-US rivalry in the region, there was much to discuss at the panel on “Economic Trends & Strategic Competition,” which brought four senior Indo-Pacific economic authorities together to discuss the state of the region. The panel’s moderator, Singapore-based Bloomberg columnist Karishma Vaswani, set the stage, noting: “Never before has the United States had such a formidable economic and politically influential rival. That makes it really difficult for countries in this part of the world to decide where their future lies, and time and time again when I speak to politicians and diplomats, they say to me, ‘We don't want to feel compelled to take sides.”

‘More love than hatred’

One measure of the ongoing geopolitical tension between China and the US is the fact that travel between the two countries has not returned to pre-pandemic levels, according to Zha Daojiong, a professor at the Peking University School of International Studies. Still, the two countries continue to find ways to collaborate, he said, such as addressing cross-border issues like narcotics trafficking.

Former Deputy Secretary-General of ASEAN Suthad Setboonsarng from Thailand agreed that there is ample room for cooperation between the two powers. “Between the US and China, in fact, there's more love than hatred,” said Setboonsarng, who now serves as a director of auto parts manufacturer Somboon Advance Technology. “They are the biggest trading partners in the world. Don't forget that. In fact, they trade everything. … Apple computers are still produced in China.”

China is facing its own economic challenges that inform its economic strategies, said Zha, who teaches at Peking University’s Institute of South-South Cooperation and Development (ISSCAD). China has a high level of external debt, which reached nearly $2.5 trillion in 2023. That means that China’s exports and imports remain pillars of its economic growth, despite any controversies that arise around trade, he said.

‘We do find common ground’

Regional economic growth in the Asia-Pacific significantly impacts global GDP, since it is home to more than half of the world’s population, or approximately 4.3 billion people, according to Ambassador Chantale Yok-Min Wong, the US executive director of the Asian Development Bank based in Manila. It’s an area where economic growth and strategic competition converge, she said, with manufacturing and technological hubs, along with natural resources that influence the global energy market.

“Ongoing disputes, not only here in the South China Sea, but also the East China Sea and in the Taiwan Straits, pose risks to regional security and stability,” Yok-Min Wong said. “On top of that, economic inequality and development disparity persists across the region.” However, she added: “We have 68 countries that are members of the Asian Development Bank. Within that, we do find common ground to meet the needed development challenges.”

‘Insulated by domestic growth’

Disruptions to global supply chains are just one example of how economics can complicate relationships between countries, according to Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan, head of the Philippines’ National Economic and Development Authority. The global economy, including in the Asia-Pacific region, has been experiencing slowing growth for more than a decade, Balisacan said, due to not only geopolitical tensions but also reduced private economic investment and aging populations in East Asia. There’s also been an increase in cross-border investment restrictions and national security screenings, which can make international trade more difficult for some countries.

The Philippines is somewhat insulated from these kinds of global economic shifts and disruptions due to its emphasis on domestic growth, particularly during in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to Balisacan. As a result, he said, the Philippines was among the fastest emerging economies in the region to recover since it is primarily “domestic growth-driven, and less export-driven than many of our neighbors, such as China, Thailand, Indonesia, Singapore, and Vietnam.”

‘This geography we are given’

As geopolitical tensions in the region threaten to hinder countries’ economic goals and growth, one cooperative effort that helps to keep the peace is the 10-member ASEAN, or Association of South-East Asian Nations, said Setboonsarng, the organization’s former deputy secretary-general. Its founding document, signed in 1967, is a pact not to settle disputes by war, he said. “Where we can cooperate, we cooperate,” he said. “When we have problems, we talk about it, try to resolve it. It may take two years; it may take 20 years. In fact, many of the disputes that ASEAN has with each other are still on the table. But we continue on living together in this geography we are given.”

Zha also cited the Malaysia-Thailand Joint Authority, which manages oil exploration and development in an area of overlapping continental shelf claims in the Gulf of Thailand, as an example where two countries managed to resolve territorial disputes, despite taking considerable time to achieve. “It took about 20 years for the idea to be inked, but nevertheless they managed to contain it, and it's not a small area — it covers some 7,250 square kilometers,” Zha said. “So why do we have to just be so focused on saying the show of so-called strength, the show of weapons, is the only solution. Is conflict the solution? I doubt it. I don't think it's in anybody's interest to say that conflict is inevitable.”

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