Growing Challenges For Dems In Arab And Muslim Voting Hotspots Across The U.S.

Aug 29, 2024

During President Joe Biden’s speech at the Democratic National Convention (DNC) in Chicago on August 19, pro-Palestinian delegates briefly unveiled a banner urging an end to U.S. arms for Israel before they were drowned out by cheers for Biden. Meanwhile, pro-Palestinian protests outside the arena further highlighted the lingering divides between the Democratic establishment and its constituents. Vice President Kamala Harris’s promotion as the party’s nominee has slightly eased tensions, but her reluctance to fully endorse a ceasefire has kept discontent alive.

Arab and Muslim Americans have been central to elevating the Gaza War to the forefront of national politics. Yet despite increased attention to their political influence since October 7, 2023, their ability to sway presidential elections is still uncertain. These communities are largely concentrated in major cities and relatively small in numbers, with limited overlap. Roughly three-quarters of the 3.7 million Arab Americans are Christian, while Arab Muslims form about 15 percent of the 4.5 million Muslims in the country. Illinois has the highest per capita Muslim population in the U.S., yet they make up less than 4 percent of the state. Michigan’s Arab population, per capita the largest in the country, forms just over 2 percent.

Support for Palestine, however, unites the Arab and Muslim populations, alongside progressives. Their fervent and organized opposition to Biden’s stance on the Gaza conflict casts doubt on whether Harris and the Democrats can regain their support before the election, particularly in must-win swing states. Yet while the Palestinian issue has amplified the visibility of these voters, their political activism extends to cities and congressional districts across the country. Friction with Democrats over several issues has created openings for Republicans, so far with mixed results.

The fluidity of Muslim and Arab voters has been apparent for decades. As the American Muslim population grew into a substantial voting bloc in the 1980s, for example, neither political party consistently secured their loyalty. President George W. Bush won the Muslim vote comfortably over Al Gore in the 2000 election, but the War on Terror, Patriot Act, and surveillance and harassment of American Muslim communities after 9/11 drove it to the Democrats.

By the 2020 election, Arab and Muslim American dissatisfaction with Democrats reignited some competition over their votes, though it remained lopsided. While 64 percent of Muslim Americans voted for Biden, 35 percent supported Donald Trump, up from 2016, and largely similar to the Arab American vote. Polling in the aftermath of October 7 revealed declining approval for both men, with Biden hit harder. A Council on American-Islamic Relations poll showed Muslim voters preferred Biden to Trump by 37 percent to 27 percent, while Pew Research found support nearly tied at 36 percent to 35 percent. The Arab American Institute found Trump leading Biden 32 percent to 18 percent among Arab Americans.

Frustrated with their presidential choices, Muslim and Arab American leaders launched an #AbandonBiden campaign in late 2023 to back third-party candidates, largely on the left, supporting an unconditional ceasefire. Additionally, a push within the Democratic Party’s base to vote “uncommitted” in Michigan’s February 2024 primary in turn garnered 100,000 votes, just over 50,000 shy of Biden’s 2020 margin of victory in the state. “Uncommitted” volunteers expanded their effort to other states, with Minnesota’s tally reaching 20 percent of the total. Overall, protest votes averaged 13 percent in the Democratic primaries—double the historical average.

Eyeing an opportunity, Trump has attempted to capitalize on the backlash to Biden. Lebanese-born businessman Massad Boulos, whose son married Trump’s daughter, Tiffany, has led outreach to Arab American voters. He began working closely with Bishara Bahbah, a former associate director of the Middle East Policy Institute at Harvard Kennedy School, who launched the group Arab Americans for Trump. Distrust toward Trump remains high among Muslim communities, however, limiting outreach opportunities.

Kamala Harris’s stance on Gaza has remained carefully balanced since she became the presumptive nominee. The vice president skipped Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s speech to Congress in July (citing a scheduling conflict), but later met with him privately during his visit. Harris then appointed her aide Nasrina Bargzie in August to help build support among Arab and Muslim voters.

Still, despite enthusiasm for Harris, concerns linger among Democrats. Leaders of the “uncommitted” campaign met with Harris and her vice-presidential pick, Tim Walz, in August 2024 for discussions. The organization claimed Harris expressed support for a ceasefire and an openness to discussing an arms embargo, though a Harris aide quickly clarified that the latter was not agreed upon while emphasizing the need for more dialogue. Days later, the #AbandonBiden campaign rebranded to #AbandonHarris, while the Muslim Women for Harris group disbanded and withdrew support for her after Palestinian speakers were denied a speaking slot at the DNC.

Arab and Muslim Americans have limited representation in Congress to push the issue. The first Arab-American congressman took office in 1959, and only a handful are currently serving. Keith Ellison became the first Muslim elected to Congress in 2007, representing Minnesota’s 5th District, followed by Andre Carson in 2008, who served Indiana’s 7th District. Ilhan Omar succeeded Ellison in 2019 and was decisively reelected in August 2024. She has maintained strong advocacy for Palestine, alongside fellow Congresswoman Rashida Tlaib, who is both a Muslim and Arab American.

The focus on building momentum in congressional districts and in cities has nonetheless positioned Muslim and Arab American communities for greater influence, amplified through cooperation with progressive groups like the Jewish Voice for Peace. Several city councils, such as Akron, Ohio, began passing legislation calling for a ceasefire weeks into the Gaza War. In March 2024, the “Listen to Michigan” group helped organize a town hall in Cleveland for congressional candidates to speak with Arab and Muslim communities, including Matthew Diemer, now the Democratic nominee for Ohio’s 7th District.

The intensified efforts of Arab and Muslim groups and politicians have undoubtedly brought greater visibility to Gaza, especially given the Democratic Party’s need to consolidate its electoral coalition. Arab and Muslim Americans have become a significant focus for Republicans and Democrats in swing states like Michigan and Ohio, and an ability to organize on more local levels across the country has granted them growing political weight.

Because the concerns of Arab and Muslim Americans are often narrowly tied to the Israel-Palestine conflict, the broader issues affecting these communities tend to be overshadowed, particularly in larger multicultural states. However, in smaller states and communities, friction with Democrats over several issues had led Republicans to sense outreach opportunities for years.

The GOP’s strategy has been to appeal to the opposition many Arab and Muslim American communities have toward certain progressive social issues. Muslim and Coptic Christian parents protested the inclusion of LGBT criteria in education in Jersey City in 2020. A similar scenario occurred in Maryland’s Montgomery County in 2023, where hundreds of parents, supported by the Council on American-Islamic Relations, protested against LGBT-inclusive education. County councilwoman Kristin Mink’s claim that parents were on the same side as “white supremacists and outright bigots,” which she later apologized for, reflected the tension between mainstream Democrats and more socially conservative sections of Arab and Muslim American communities.

Michigan, with its significant Arab and Muslim populations, has become a major political battleground over LGBT rights. In the city of Dearborn, where these communities are concentrated and where “uncommitted” voters outnumbered votes for Biden by 56 percent to 40 percent, the clash has been particularly notable. In 2022, hundreds of conservative Muslims and Christians united in protest against the inclusion of LGBT content in schools, including prominent Michigan Republicans and Moms for Liberty, a conservative Christian organization.

Dearborn, the first Arab-majority city in the U.S., is part of Rashida Tlaib’s 12th District, where her strong support for LGBT rights has prompted Republicans to capitalize on the issue and undermine her support. Former Republican congressional candidate Steven Elliott participated in Dearborn school board meetings with Muslim parents discussing LGBT education, while Matthew DePerno, GOP nominee for Michigan attorney general, stated, “I am proud to stand with the parents of Dearborn,” during his campaign.

Hamtramck, Michigan, remains the only Muslim-majority city in the country. Progressives expressed enthusiasm when the city elected the first Muslim-majority council in the U.S. in 2015, and a Muslim mayor in 2022. But in 2023, after the council voted to exclude LGBT flags from city property, local Democratic groups and residents organized protests against the decision, which received support from Republicans.

Additionally, cooperation between foreign Muslim organizations and domestic conservative Christian groups has become less taboo. In December 2022, Saudi Arabia’s International Islamic Fiqh Academy expressed solidarity with Family Watch International, a Christian right organization based in Arizona. Representatives from the Organization for Islamic Cooperation then delivered statements at Family Watch International’s annual global policy forum weeks later.

While Arab and Muslim Americans may not be flocking to Republicans over their approach to Gaza, Democrats have so far failed to distinguish themselves from the GOP on the issue. A sense of political abandonment, intensified since the Gaza War, has led to more fluid political identities within these communities. Issues such as the erosion of traditional values, support for law enforcement, and others have emerged or reemerged as potential avenues for greater cooperation with Republicans. However, a lack of faith in the GOP’s ability to manage the various issues facing Muslim and Arab American communities means that votes for “uncommitted”, as well as growing disillusionment and abstaining from voting altogether, are becoming more common.

Republican leaders will need to more effectively address Muslim and Arab Americans’ concerns about the party’s stance on Israel and Gaza, as well as reverse lingering discontent among traditional Republican voters toward Muslims, if they intend to appeal to these communities. Meanwhile, the Democratic Party faces an uphill battle in convincing these communities to come back into the fold, which will require taking a stronger stance against Israel’s treatment of Palestinians. Politicians like pro-Palestinian Green Party presidential candidate Jill Stein, along with her Muslim vice presidential pick Rudolph Ware, could also help improve the chances of third parties by rallying Muslim and Arab American support in the 2024 election and future campaigns.

As Muslim and Arab American populations continue to grow and establish themselves, their political influence will only increase. In 2017, three-quarters of American Muslims were immigrants and children of immigrants, and they are generally younger than the average American. Fast-growing Muslim communities in Texas’s Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth, Washington, DC, and beyond are set to make a significant impact.

With effective activism and growing populations, Arab and Muslim American communities are likely to influence both major parties to align more with their interests in the coming years—from foreign policy issues like Gaza to pivotal domestic initiatives. Failing to do so will drive more voters toward third parties, further disrupting the traditional balance of the two-party system.

Author Bio: John P. Ruehl is an Australian-American journalist living in Washington, D.C., and a world affairs correspondent for the Independent Media Institute. He is a contributor to several foreign affairs publications, and his book, Budget Superpower: How Russia Challenges the West With an Economy Smaller Than Texas’, was published in December 2022.

Credit Line: This article was produced by Economy for All, a project of the Independent Media Institute.

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