Father Boosts Daughter To Rule Thailand

BANGKOK, Thailand -- Thailand's new Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, 38, is the daughter of a coup-toppled, convicted, former international fugitive and prime minister, Thaksin Shinawatra, 74, who is perceived as trying to manipulate her new populous, capitalist-friendly coalition government.

"I insist he is not trying to dominate," Prime Minister Paetongtarn ["peh-tong-tarn"] told reporters after parliament elected her on Aug. 16.

"I can think for myself."

If proven in the nine-judge Constitutional Court that Mr. Thaksin is influencing, guiding, or dominating his daughter or their Pheu Thai (For Thais) Party, he could be jailed, the party dissolved, and her government finished.

"Her weakness is being Thaksin's daughter," Rangsit University Political Science lecturer Wanwichit Boonprong said in an interview.

Mr. Thaksin "has many political enemies," Mr. Wanwichit said.

Ms. Paetongtarn has little political experience except witnessing the ugly, treacherous fate of her father and aunt.

After a 2006 coup, Mr. Thaksin plunged into self-exile for 17 years dodging prison until last year when he voluntarily returned, spent several months in a Bangkok hospital, and was released.

The political dynasty suffered dynastic collapse again when the government of her father's sister, former prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra, fell in a 2014 putsch.

Today, Ms. Yingluck is a fugitive abroad avoiding a five-year prison sentence by the Supreme Court for financial mismanagement during her administration.

After two decades of political backstabbing among the military and elected politicians, Ms. Paetongtarn, a young mother-of-two, is being warned she is an easy target and may become the next Shinawatra to be prosecuted.

The two coups against her father and aunt, "weigh heavily on her shoulders, serving as both a reminder and a warning of the political perils ahead," a Bangkok Post editorial said.

"No one wishes to see her share the unfortunate fate that befell" her relatives, it said.

"Paetongtarn Shinawatra is also vulnerable as there is a pending case against her over the purchase of [Buddhist] monastic land by the Alpine Golf Club, a firm in which she is a shareholder," said Chairith Yongpiam, a Bangkok Post assistant news editor.

Ms. Paetongtarn's enemies are seeking any evidence to use against her and her family-run Pheu Thai Party (PTP) for possible violations of the powerful Constitutional Court, which liquidates guilty parties and banishes their politicians.

The pro-military Senate could be the source of that destablizing possibility.

They launched a successful petition resulting in the Constitution Court ousting the previous PTP prime minister Srettha Thavisin on Aug. 14 for "unethical" political behavior because he appointed a lawyer, who served time in prison in a bribery case, to his cabinet.

The disgraced Mr. Srettha's downfall enabled Ms. Paetongtarn to replace him, and continue as prime minister leading the PTP for its remaining three-year tenure, after a coalition reshuffle.

Ms. Paetongtarn is expected to follow Mr. Thaksin's past policies of maintaining close and balanced relations with Washington and Beijing, allowing the U.S. to be heavier on military assistance while China is bullish on investing and developing infrastructure in Thailand.

"Whoever is in the Thai government must be able to work with the Thai armed forces, which still maintain close relationships with its U.S. counterpart," said former foreign minister Kasit Piromya in an interview.

"Thailand has become less important in the eyes of the U.S. side, compared to Singapore, Vietnam, the Philippines, and even Indonesia. The new Thai government has to review and reposition itself first," Mr. Kasit said.

During Mr. Thaksin's 2001-06 prime ministry, President Bush welcomed him to the White House after Bangkok assisted Washington in its international "war on terror".

The U.S. and Thailand became non-NATO treaty allies.

"Thailand's close and comprehensive relations with China were initiated by Thaksin himself some twenty-three years ago, and continued apace even when he and his nominees were out of power," Bangkok-based Benjamin Zawacki, author of "Thailand: Shifting Ground Between the U.S. and a Rising China," said in an interview.

"On the surface, Mr. Thaksin still dominates Thai politics nearly 20 years after he was deposed by a military coup and exiled for most of that period," wrote columnist and Chulalongkorn University Political Science professor Thitinan Pongsudhirak.

"This time, his political power and influence are being exercised through his daughter Ms. Paetongtarn.

"The irony for her now is that her father has struck an alliance with the pro-military and establishment forces who booted hm out -- as well as her aunt Yingluck Shinawatra -- in the 2006 and 2014 military takeovers," Mr. Thitinan said.

"Thaksin Shinawatra reconsolidated his power in the blink of any eye," the editor Mr. Chairith said.

"Now we are again seeing old enemies bury the hatchet and vie for political cake."

Ms. Paetongtarn's coalition government is comprised of 10 political parties and one faction.

They hold 312 seats in Parliament's 490-seat House of Representatives, and face a combined opposition of 178 seats.

Wheeling and dealing in Thailand's opaque politics will be a steep learning curve for Ms. Paetongtarn who earned a Master's degree in international hotel management from Surry University, England.

She is mostly unknown when not in her father's shadow.

"I think she is trying to create an image of herself to be a representative of the new generation, modern, understanding technology and soft power policies in order to make Thailand as successful as South Korea [by] exporting cultural products," said Mr. Wanwichit.

"Paetongtarn's preferences mirror her father's preferences," Paul Chambers, a Thai political specialist at Naresuan University, said in an interview.

"Thaksin appears everywhere that she goes. Thaksin is the major funder of the Pheu Thai Party. Only Thaksin loyalists have received top posts in Pheu Thai cabinets.

"She is young and looks energetic, otherwise has no strengths except to be a Shinawatra," Mr. Chambers said.

"Nothing is known about her ideology or idealism or ideas," said former foreign minister Kasit.

"She depends on her support team and her father," said Mr. Kasit whose 2008-11 tenure was in a Democrat Party administration which strongly opposed Mr. Thaksin and his family.

In March, Ms. Paetongtarn visited Cambodia and met former prime minister Hun Sen and his son Prime Minister Hun Manet, and others on a trip paved by her father's close relations with Hun Sen.

Mr. Thaksin meanwhile is battling a Criminal Court case against him for allegedly insulting the royal family in 2015, which can result in a 15-year prison sentence.

He is free on bail -- vowing not to flee again -- awaiting a court hearing in July 2025.

***

Richard S. Ehrlich is a Bangkok-based American foreign correspondent reporting from Asia since 1978, and winner of Columbia University's Foreign Correspondents' Award. Excerpts from his two new nonfiction books, "Rituals. Killers. Wars. & Sex. -- Tibet, India, Nepal, Laos, Vietnam, Afghanistan, Sri Lanka & New York" and "Apocalyptic Tribes, Smugglers & Freaks" are available at
https://asia-correspondent.tumblr.com

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