Report: New Zealand's Climate Commitments Fail To Address Health Impacts

Global, 10 February 2025:- New research published today by the Global Climate and Health Alliance (GCHA) demonstrates that while governments are giving greater priority to health when setting national climate policies, many have yet to close crucial gaps on whole-of-economy emissions reductions, health metrics, financial commitments, and transparency. 
 
GCHA’s Healthy NDCs 3.0: Embedding Health in National Climate Plans for 2035 examines “third generation” Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC 3.0s), the 2035 climate plans submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) by COP30 host Brazil, the United States, United Kingdom, New Zealand, Switzerland, United Arab Emirates and Uruguay, ahead of a February 10th UNFCCC deadline (see below for key findings on each of these countries).
 
The analysis also looks at 2035 emission reductions targets from Canada and Japan, and updated 2030 commitments from Botswana and Panama. As required under the 2015 Paris Agreement, countries submit Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to the UNFCCC every five years, outlining how they will deliver on their fair share of achieving the climate action goals of the agreement. 
 
Countries are mandated to submit NDCs 3.0 by February 2025, to allow sufficient time for the preparation of the compilation and synthesis report prior to COP30 in November 2025. In practice, many NDCs will be submitted after this deadline. While timely submission of NDCs builds momentum for urgent action, the quality of the commitments submitted will define climate and human health outcomes. Leadership countries should ensure that they submit their NDCs well in advance of September 2025. GCHA’s previous examination of earlier Nationally Determined Contributions highlighted UNFCCC findings that governments collectively failed to set climate mitigation targets sufficiently ambitious to limit warming to 1.5C.
 
“Our analysis of these early NDCs 3.0 found wide and concerning variations in how governments are prioritising the health of their citizens within national climate strategies" said Jess Beagley, Global Climate and Health Alliance Policy Lead. ”While these countries have made progress in acknowledging the interconnections between health and climate, in many cases significant gaps remain, with ambition often undermined by the absence of explicit health objectives and metrics - such as protecting nutrition security or details on climate-related hospital admissions.” 
 
“Strong NDCs should indicate domestic budgetary allocations for health-promoting climate action; where international climate finance from developed to developing countries is needed, or would be provided; and include provisions for tracking progress and demonstrating accountability”, added Beagley. “Both health investments needed for ambitious climate action, and health cost savings from these actions should be accounted for. In addition, the process of developing these national climate plans should be transparent, allow for public visibility into the process, and should include health expertise in the NDC development process.”
 
“Meanwhile, the 2035 finance target agreed at COP29 of USD 300bn annually is severely inadequate, undermining climate action at the scale needed to adequately protect health”, added Beagley. “Developed countries must respond to the costs and budgetary requirements outlined by developing countries in their NDCs.” 
 
“Countries set to submit their full NDC 3.0 in the coming weeks and months, including high historical and present emitters such as Australia, Canada, the EU, Japan, Indonesia, and the Republic of Korea must embed health considerations more comprehensively into their national climate policies”, said Beagley. “Notably, Australia, several EU countries and the UK were co-sponsors of the 77th World Health Assembly Resolution on Climate and Health which called on governments to adopt a “health in all policies” approach, while Australia, Canada, many EU countries, Japan, the Republic of Korea and the UK all endorsed the COP28 UAE Declaration on Climate and Health, including a commitment to take health into account in NDCs.”
 
The September 2024 UNFCCC NDC Synthesis Report indicates that if national climate plans for 2030 were fully implemented, global temperatures would reach 2.1-2.8°C above pre-industrial levels by the year 2100, depending on factors including the delivery of adequate climate finance by developed countries for the implementation of actions in developing countries.
 
“By not fully integrating health into earlier climate plans, countries missed opportunities to protect wellbeing, optimise returns on investment, and motivate higher ambition”, said Beagley. With over 170 countries set to deliver their NDCs 3.0 this year, GCHA aims to publish further analysis in 2026”.
 
“NDCs are one of the critical tools connecting the dots between commitments made in the big international context of the UNFCCC negotiations, and actually delivering on those promises, in self-determined ways, at the national level”, said Jeni Miller, Executive Director of Global Climate and Health Alliance. “Building health explicitly into those national climate plans ensures countries maximise every opportunity to protect and promote the health of their own population with the climate actions they take and the climate investments they make.”
 
“To avoid being caught wrongfooted by the growing impacts of climate change which are putting increasing strains on healthcare systems and community resilience, countries must think holistically about integrating health into their climate policies and look for major opportunities to protect health and strengthen their economies”, said Miller. “By involving health ministries, health experts, and health civil society in the NDC development process, countries can initiate the cooperation they will need not only to implement the plan, but to effectively protect their people’s health, well being, productivity, and resilience in the climate era.”

Key Findings from the Report:

 
United States
In 2023, a potential $103 billion income from reduced labour was lost due to heat in the US - a record high. GCHA’s rapid analysis of national climate commitments demonstrates how the government of Botswana (2030 NDC), responsible for only 0.019% of the total global annual GHG emissions, is serious about tackling the main impacts in the climate and health nexus in the country. Conversely, the new NDC from the United States - responsible for 11% of annual global emissions, includes a target to reduce emissions 61-66 percent below 2005 levels by 2035. This is dangerously below the level of ambition required to protect the climate and human health and falls far short of recommended reductions of at least 80%.
 
It is clear that the Trump administration will not provide the leadership required to deliver these transformations. Over the next four years, action at state level and from other subnational decision makers will make or break a healthy future for people and the planet, until new leadership is in place at federal level and the US assumes its seat at the table of shared global action on climate change, with renewed commitment and an updated NDC. 
 
The United States’ 2035 NDC acknowledges potential public health benefits, but realising these benefits will depend on subnational leaders stepping up. To strengthen its impact, the US should quantify and monitor health benefits across sectors and consider including a dedicated health section. Enhanced participatory processes would promote health equity. By addressing these gaps, the US can ensure that its climate policies deliver comprehensive benefits for both the environment and public health, setting an example of integrated climate and health action. 

Brazil
While COP 30 host Brazil’s 2035 NDC discusses adaptation in the healthcare sector, its emissions reduction target is not in line with pathways required to protect health. Further warming risks exceeding the limits of adaptation in the healthcare sector. Brazil demonstrates a notable effort to integrate health considerations within its overarching climate strategies, though some critical gaps remain.
 
This NDC, with its focus on combating deforestation and alignment with current policies and plans, reflects commendable progress in integrating health considerations into climate strategies but falls short in critical areas. The lack of measurable health targets or concrete financial commitments for the health sector, coupled with insufficient alignment with 1.5°C pathways undermine its overall effectiveness. 
 
GCHA suggests that Brazil’s NDC requires a more structured and ambitious framework to achieve meaningful health and climate outcomes. Reducing deforestation could yield significant health gains by curbing air pollution from forest fires. Furthermore, forest preservation plays a critical role in ensuring access to clean water and maintaining the biodiversity necessary for sustainable food systems. These health gains underscore the importance of addressing deforestation not just as an environmental issue but as a cornerstone of public health, making it imperative for Brazil to implement its commitments in this area.

United Kingdom
During COP29, the United Kingdom announced its commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions at least 81% by 2035 compared to 1990 levels - a target consistent with the UK’s Climate Change Committee’s advice and the UK’s national Climate Act to reach net zero emissions by 2050. The target demonstrates theUK.’s ambition to reduce emissions to levels which would protect human health from climate-induced hazards, although much greater reductions would be needed to fully reflect equity, given the U.K.’s high historical emissions.
 
Health is mentioned in the very first sentence of the NDC, indicating recognition of the close linkages between climate change and health and the case for integrated action. 
 
The UK’s NDC incorporates health considerations in climate actions, with concrete strategies already in place at the local level on improving air quality and committing to the development of a national strategy on the topic. By incorporating more explicit health strategies targeting the public health sector and health infrastructure, the UK would improve its alignment with holistic climate resilience planning.

United Arab Emirates
WHO estimates that 1,872 people die every year from outdoor air pollution in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), host of COP28. GCHA found that despite demonstrating a willingness to engage with global climate goals and highlight areas of progress, such as renewable energy expansion and stakeholder engagement, UAE’s heavy reliance on offsets, and contradictions between stated goals and fossil fuel expansion, undermine its overall effectiveness. 
 
The UAE NDC 3.0 sets a target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions 47% by 2035 relative to 2019 levels (an improvement against the previous target of 40%). This reduction does not align with the Paris Agreement’s ambition, and the credibility of the commitment is undermined by significant reliance on offsets and unproven technologies such as carbon capture and storage (CCS). As for other NDCs, this target does not include exported emissions, which in the UAE case is fundamental as 63% of the UAE’s oil is exported.
 
The UAE NDC demonstrates a willingness to engage with global climate goals and highlights areas of progress, such as renewable energy expansion and stakeholder engagement. However, the heavy reliance on offsets and contradictions between stated goals and fossil fuel expansion undermine its overall effectiveness. 
 
To improve its impact, the UAE should integrate health-specific measures and targets into its climate strategies and allocate dedicated funding for health-focused adaptation. Enhanced transparency and accountability in financial and emissions reporting and reduced reliance on offsets, instead prioritising domestic emissions reductions, would improve alignment with the Paris Agreement and also enhance capacity to deliver tangible health and climate benefits.

New Zealand
New Zealand aims to reduce net GHG emissions to 51-55% below gross 2005 levels by 2035, a target described as “shockingly unambitious” - a negligible increase on the 50% reduction target by 2030 of the former NDC from the same baseline year, and wholly inadequate to protect health. No reference to the health impacts of climate change are contained in New Zealand’s NDC, nor indeed of health in any context.
 
New Zealand’s NDC shows limited mitigation ambition, and neglects health considerations. New Zealand's future NDCs should integrate measurable health targets and financing for health-related measures. Better transparency regarding participation and contributions from various stakeholders would also constitute a strong improvement.
 
Switzerland
While it incorporates long-term strategies like the Climate and Innovation Act (2023), which aims for net- zero emissions by 2050, health considerations are notably absent in the framing of these climate goals. Unlike some other NDCs, Switzerland does not explicitly mention health as a central outcome of its strategies, although brief mention is made of the health risks of heat and mountain rockfalls.
 
Switzerland’s updated NDC reflects a robust long-term climate ambition, particularly through its net-zero target and integration of economic and environmental strategies. However, the omission of explicit health considerations and metrics represents a significant gap. Integrating health into Switzerland’s climate agenda would not only address public health risks but also unlock additional benefits, enhancing the overall effectiveness and equity of its climate policies. The report contains several recommendations in this regard. 
 
Uruguay
Uruguay’s emissions reductions target are ambitious and aligned with the pathways needed to protect human health. In addition, health is referred to in existing sectoral national adaptation plans (NAPs) for cities, agriculture, and coasts, and the country has committed to develop a dedicated health NAP (HNAP) by the end of 2025.
 
Uruguay’s NDC reflects a mature and inclusive approach to climate governance, emphasizing adaptation and equity. Its energy transition and participatory processes are exemplary, setting a benchmark for other nations. However, the lack of explicit health integration, measurable targets, and financial commitments for health-focused actions diminishes its potential impact on public health outcomes.
 

2035 Targets

 
Canada
Over 235,000 people were evacuated during Canada’s 2023 climate-driven wildfires because of danger to their health. In December 2024, Canada established its 2035 greenhouse gas emissions reduction target, committing to reduce GHGs 45–50% below 2005 levels. According to analysis by Climate Action Network Canada, this falls far short of Canada’s fair share of emissions reductions necessary to limit temperature rise to 1.5°C, which would require domestic emissions reductions of 80% below 2005 levels by 2035. According to GCHA’s analysis, as well as endangering the health of people worldwide, Canada is failing to properly include the specific health and wider perspectives of Indigenous communities. Canada’s next leader should consider the current target a baseline, and must increase the current target in order to protect the health of the people of Canada and the world.
 
Japan
The costs of climate-change-driven heat-related mortality in Japan in 2023 were equivalent to the income of 687,100 people. In November 2024, the government of Japan proposed an emissions reduction target of 60% by 2035 from 2013 levels. This has been criticised by scientists and climate campaigners on account of its misalignment to the Paris Agreement. According to Climate Action Tracker, Japan would need to implement cuts of about 80% by 2035 to hold the increase in global temperatures to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.
 

2030 Targets

Panama’s 2030 NDC integrates health considerations into climate strategies, with strong alignment to national and international frameworks. GCHA found that making improvements in quantitative targets, financial commitments, and monitoring mechanisms would further enhance the clarity and effectiveness of Panama’s NDC. Transparency in stakeholder engagement and embedding comprehensive health metrics would also optimise the impact of Panama’s efforts, ensuring the NDC serves as a robust tool for its government when addressing climate and health challenges.
 
GCHA’s rapid analysis of national climate commitments demonstrates how the government of Botswana, responsible for only 0.019% of the total global annual GHG emissions, is serious about tackling the main impacts in the climate and health nexus in the country. 

With explicit measures, a defined baseline, clear targets to measure, and a transparent subdivision between conditional and unconditional financing for climate action, the NDC shows a commitment of Botswana’s government to tackling the main issues at the climate and health nexus.
 
Botswana’s NDC reflects notable progress in integrating climate action with national development priorities. The emphasis on adaptation and the commitment to finance most of the adaptation actions unconditionally to foreign aid, the presence of transparent and clear measures with targets and indicators, and the alignment with national development policies such as Vision 2036 are key strengths.
 

Key Takeaways

 
What countries got right:

• Acknowledgment of Health Benefits: The majority of NDCs recognize the health benefits of mitigation strategies like renewable energy adoption and reduced air pollution.
• Governance Frameworks: Most analyzed NDCs highlight alignment with national legal and institutional frameworks, which bolster cross-sectoral coordination.
• Participatory Approaches: Stakeholder engagement is prominently featured in NDCs , though its influence on health-specific outcomes is not always evident.

Where countries must improve:

• Inadequate climate ambition to protect health: The September 2024 UNFCCC NDC Synthesis Report indicates that if national climate plans for 2030 were fully implemented, global temperatures would reach 2.1-2.8°C above pre-industrial levels by the year 2100, depending on factors including the delivery of adequate climate finance by developed countries for the delivery of actions in developing countries. The WMO confirmed this trend by validating that 2024 was the warmest year on record at about 1.55°C above pre-industrial level. The upper limit of the 2.1-2.8°C range would be catastrophic for human health but even high emitting countries have not demonstrated sufficient advances on previous targets.
• Lack of Health-Specific Targets: Most NDCs fail to establish measurable goals for reducing health burdens linked to climate change.
• Insufficient Financial Commitments: Dedicated funding for health adaptation and resilience measures is either absent or inadequately detailed.
• Underdeveloped Monitoring Frameworks: Health outcomes are rarely integrated into monitoring systems, hindering accountability and the ability to track health benefits.
• Misalignment of Actions: Ambitious emissions reductions targets are often not in alignment with the findings of the Global Stocktake and in some cases even contradicted by continued investments in fossil fuel infrastructure (as seen in the UAE’s case).

Download: Healthy NDCs 3.0: Embedding Health in National Climate Plans for 2035 - https://climateandhealthalliance.org/publications/healthy-ndcs-3-0-embedding-health-in-national-climate-plans-for-2035/

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