The Sky’s The Limit: European Airfares Could Soar By Over 50% By 2030 Due To Carbon Costs

Dublin, Ireland – [13 February 2025] – Flying in Europe could become a luxury by 2030, with ticket prices set to skyrocket by over 50% unless the aviation industry urgently tackles its carbon footprint, according to Tao Climate, a leading innovator in sustainable aviation solutions.

New analysis from Tao Climate projects that European airfares could increase by up to €54 per ticket, pushing the average short-haul flight from €100 to €154. This alarming rise stems from soaring carbon compliance costs, penalties for failing to meet Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) quotas, and the growing price of carbon offsets under the CORSIA scheme (CORSIA is the aviation industry's carbon removal scheme).

"This is the worst turbulence the industry has faced since deregulation," said Gary Byrnes, CEO, Tao Climate. "Passengers are going to feel the cost of inaction, and airlines will be forced to make hard decisions: adapt or price themselves out of the market."

Why Airfares Could Take Off – and Not in a Good Way

1. SAF Mandates & Penalties: Under the EU’s ReFuelEU Aviation initiative, airlines must use 6% SAF by 2030, despite it costing up to 3.5 times more than conventional jet fuel. If airlines fail to meet these targets, they face penalties of double the market price of jet fuel per ton shortfall.
2. CORSIA Compliance Costs: Airlines must offset international flight emissions by purchasing carbon credits. As demand skyrockets, offset prices could exceed €100 per ton of CO2, adding €10-20 per passenger. Some airlines use carbon displacement products instead of carbon removals. Carbon displacement doesn't actually remove any CO2 from the air, it simply reduces CO2 emissions elsewhere. Carbon displacement is wide open to potential greenwashing litigation and penalisation, further increasing costs.
3. Fuel Costs and Infrastructure Gaps: With SAF supply still lagging and infrastructure slow to develop, airlines will face rising operational costs, further squeezing margins.

Who Pays the Price? Everyone.

This trend has global ramifications: Budget travel could disappear for many, business travel costs will rise, and the aviation sector’s recovery post-pandemic could stall.

The Solution? AI-Powered, Space-Enabled Decarbonisation

Tao Climate is leading the charge in cost-effective carbon removal and alternative SAF solutions, helping airlines mitigate these financial shocks while reducing emissions. Powered by advanced AI and space technology, Tao Climate’s Monitoring, Reporting, and Verification (MRV) platform delivers real-time, verifiable hemp carbon removal solutions, providing airlines with an effective way to meet regulatory demands while keeping costs under control.

Tao Climate is recognised as one of Elon Musk’s XPRIZE Carbon Removal Top 100 in the World, reinforcing its credibility as a leader in next-generation carbon reduction technologies.

"There is still time to avoid this crisis," said Felix Roick, COO, Tao Climate. "But airlines must take action on decarbonisation now. The future of affordable and sustainable air travel depends on it."

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