Tuvalu To Brazil: Our Success Is Your Success

Tuvalu and Brazil may be separated by oceans, but our futures are deeply intertwined. As the host of COP30, Brazil has a historic opportunity to set the stage for a successful summit in Belém. But this success won’t be achieved in a single meeting—it must be built through sustained action and principled leadership throughout the year.

That journey begins now, with a concrete opportunity for Brazil to help deliver a breakthrough at the International Maritime Organization (IMO) in London next week.

Tuvalu, alongside the 6PAC+ coalition of vulnerable nations, has put forward a bold proposal: the world’s first flat-rate levy on greenhouse gas emissions from any global industry. Over 50 countries have already expressed support—representing a majority of the world’s shipping fleet—but critical details such as pricing, scope, and how revenues will be distributed must still be finalized before April.

Done right, this levy can transform shipping from one of the world’s top-polluting sectors into a driver of climate action. It would empower countries like Tuvalu to green our domestic shipping industries, invest in clean energy, and strengthen our resilience—laying the groundwork for a successful outcome in Belém.

Brazil’s past reservations about a shipping levy are well known in maritime circles, often rooted in concerns about economic impact and fairness. But as COP30 and BRICS Chair, Brazil now holds a unique position. It can step forward as a trusted mediator, working in solidarity with the Global South to deliver real results—not only for maritime nations but also for landlocked developing countries.

By advocating for a strong and fair levy, and supporting the use of revenues for mitigation, adaptation, and loss and damage—both within and beyond the maritime sector—Brazil can reaffirm its longstanding commitment to climate justice and equitable development across Latin America, Africa, and the wider Global South.

At a minimum, the IMO must adopt a levy that can fund the maritime energy transition and generate sufficient revenue to support developing countries in this process. This transition will come with costs no matter the path we choose. But even the IMO’s own analysis shows that a moderate levy—of at least $150 per tonne of emissions—would result in the lowest long-term costs of all available options. It would also have a lower economic impact than Brazil’s own alternative proposal.

Concerns about the impact of a levy on trade and consumer prices are understandable—but they are also overstated. The IMO’s own modeling shows that the real cost of the shipping transition—from switching to cleaner fuels and technologies—would raise shipping costs by only 1% to 9%, and even with a levy of $150 per tonne of COe added, the total increase would be around 15% to 24%.

That may sound high at first glance, but here’s the crucial point: shipping costs typically make up only 1%–5% of the final price of most consumer goods. This means that even a significant increase in shipping costs has a tiny effect on the final price paid by consumers. For example, a $100 pair of shoes shipped across the world may currently include just $3 in shipping costs. Even if that rises to $3.72 due to the levy and transition, the new retail price is still only $100.72.

In other words, the increase in final consumer prices would generally be less than 1%—far outweighed by the long-term benefits of reduced emissions, improved climate resilience, and investment in green infrastructure. Moreover, if the levy revenue is equitably redistributed, it can help offset these small impacts for vulnerable economies, ensuring that no one is left behind in the transition.

In contrast, market-based mechanisms like credit trading—which allow slower actors to buy compliance from early movers—risk shifting the burden of transition to countries like mine. Such systems may reward delay, while placing financial responsibility on those with the least capacity. That is neither fair nor sustainable.

The proposal we have put forward with Belize and our Pacific neighbors ensures that the cost of pollution is borne by those responsible. By placing a levy directly on emissions, we uphold the principles of fairness, accountability, and climate justice—ensuring no country is left behind in the transition to a cleaner future.

Crucially, this revenue would be additional to existing climate finance commitments under the UNFCCC. Developed countries must fulfill—and exceed—their pledges. But the shipping industry must also do its part. A levy isn’t just about raising funds; it’s about creating the right incentives, holding polluters accountable, and ensuring the transition is just.

That’s why we must move forward with a shipping levy as a necessary foundation for a fair and equitable global response to the climate crisis.

The world needs a successful COP this year. Our message to Brazil is simple: the road to Belém begins in London.

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